Hitting does come out slightly ahead in the rollouts:
        
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 155 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 159
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--aB--DaB---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/11 8/7* | eq: 0.000 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.59% (G:16.79% B:0.69%)
50.41% (G:15.07% B:1.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.004...+0.004) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 23 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/21 | eq: -0.011 (-0.010) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.26% (G:13.62% B:0.47%)
50.74% (G:11.73% B:0.47%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.014...-0.007) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 24/22 8/7* | eq: -0.025 (-0.025) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.83% (G:15.91% B:0.66%)
51.17% (G:14.37% B:0.82%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.033...-0.017) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 17 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout3 | 24/23 24/22 | eq: -0.058 (-0.058) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.25% (G:13.25% B:0.48%)
51.75% (G:12.84% B:0.51%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.073...-0.043) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 52 seconds |
|
| |
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90333169
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90333169
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90333169
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Let's play around a little.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 155 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 161
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--a-B-DaB---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/11 8/7* | eq: +0.111 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.46% (G:17.10% B:0.72%)
47.54% (G:13.87% B:0.88%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.099...+0.124) - [100.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 29 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/22 8/7* | eq: +0.079 (-0.033) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.43% (G:16.76% B:0.69%)
48.57% (G:13.77% B:0.80%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.067...+0.090) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 08 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/7* 6/4 | eq: +0.021 (-0.090) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.91% (G:16.54% B:0.65%)
50.09% (G:14.23% B:0.88%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.010...+0.033) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 55 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 24/21 | eq: +0.016 (-0.095) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.16% (G:13.65% B:0.48%)
49.84% (G:11.42% B:0.50%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.005...+0.027) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 52 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 99493389
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Our position is stronger and we are further behind in the race -- any non-hitting play is a blunder.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 155 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 163
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--a--BDaB---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/7* 7/5 | eq: +0.132 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.48% (G:17.29% B:0.66%)
47.52% (G:12.68% B:0.67%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.125...+0.140) - [99.3%]
Duration: 33 minutes 17 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/11 8/7* | eq: +0.119 (-0.014) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.58% (G:16.64% B:0.66%)
47.42% (G:13.70% B:0.87%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.110...+0.127) - [0.7%]
Duration: 38 minutes 28 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 24/22 8/7* | eq: +0.076 (-0.056) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.61% (G:16.25% B:0.59%)
48.39% (G:13.11% B:0.73%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.061...+0.092) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 46 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 24/22 6/5 | eq: +0.055 (-0.078) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.88% (G:14.70% B:0.46%)
49.12% (G:11.85% B:0.45%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.038...+0.072) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 08 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout2 | 24/21 | eq: +0.051 (-0.082) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.68% (G:13.98% B:0.48%)
49.32% (G:11.11% B:0.43%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.036...+0.066) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 19 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 99493389
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 99493389
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Same here, except the builder on the 11pt is no longer pointing to an open spot, so it's better to cut down on the number of return shots and create an extra builder for the attack.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 155 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 155
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-Ba---DaB---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/21 | eq: -0.105 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.55% (G:13.49% B:0.28%)
53.45% (G:12.88% B:0.54%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.118...-0.092) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 35 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 24/22 | eq: -0.159 (-0.054) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.30% (G:13.21% B:0.29%)
54.70% (G:13.53% B:0.53%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.174...-0.144) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 12 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/11 8/7* | eq: -0.163 (-0.058) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.24% (G:15.67% B:0.39%)
54.76% (G:16.20% B:1.06%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.180...-0.145) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 47 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 8/6 8/7* | eq: -0.170 (-0.065) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.18% (G:15.08% B:0.35%)
54.82% (G:15.72% B:0.85%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.187...-0.154) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 27 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 24/22 8/7* | eq: -0.175 (-0.071) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.89% (G:14.73% B:0.34%)
55.11% (G:15.09% B:0.82%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.192...-0.159) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 55 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 64669262
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
I'm not sure how to explain this one. We have an ace point which should point to attacking game plan. If I have to guess, I'd say it's the non-commitment principle; with better home board points we keep our options open for both attacking and priming games, whereas here hitting commits us to an all-out attack and we don't really have enough ammunition in the hood. Splitting back checkers is more flexible. (?)
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 155 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 159
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--aB--DaB---dE---cbd----B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/21 | eq: -0.230 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.51% (G:10.81% B:0.36%)
56.49% (G:12.63% B:0.54%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.244...-0.217) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 53 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 24/22 | eq: -0.272 (-0.042) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.84% (G:11.00% B:0.34%)
57.16% (G:13.50% B:0.54%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.286...-0.259) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 40 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/22 8/7* | eq: -0.281 (-0.050) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.86% (G:12.28% B:0.47%)
57.14% (G:15.60% B:0.83%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.297...-0.264) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 00 second |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 13/11 8/7* | eq: -0.302 (-0.071) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.22% (G:12.90% B:0.43%)
57.78% (G:16.20% B:1.11%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.318...-0.286) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 25 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 64669262
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Strengthen white position and splitting of course becomes mandatory.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 156 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 159
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-B--DaB---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/11 8/7* | eq: +0.090 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.58% (G:17.99% B:0.62%)
48.42% (G:13.93% B:0.94%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.074...+0.107) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 32 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/22 8/7* | eq: +0.032 (-0.058) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.20% (G:16.48% B:0.69%)
49.80% (G:13.80% B:0.80%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.016...+0.049) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 06 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/21 | eq: -0.049 (-0.140) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.30% (G:13.24% B:0.42%)
51.70% (G:12.19% B:0.50%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.063...-0.036) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 13 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94782038
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Finally, Casper's variant. With a blot on the 8pt being out of the range of the white checker on the ace point hitting is also clear.