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RO - backgame surprises - hit/no hit all the same?

Posted By: Rod
Date: Thursday, 22 August 2013, at 4:51 a.m.

In Response To: backgame surprises (Rod)

Apparently hitting and having a chance of making an unbroken prime outweighs allowing the chance of opponent making the 9. Seem correct enough?





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 258
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 206
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-acbabCBBaA-b----AAc-BA-AA:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 44

1.Rollout1Bar/21 18/10 17/13eq: +0.429
Player:
Opponent:
56.70% (G:26.86% B:1.70%)
43.30% (G:8.82% B:0.35%)
Conf.: 0.016 (+0.413...+0.445) - [56.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 14 minutes
2.Rollout2Bar/21 22/18 17/9* eq: +0.427 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
57.70% (G:25.48% B:1.56%)
42.30% (G:9.04% B:0.43%)
Conf.: 0.017 (+0.410...+0.444) - [43.5%]
Duration: 9 hours 35 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/21 22/10eq: +0.403 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
56.84% (G:25.77% B:1.52%)
43.16% (G:8.77% B:0.37%)
Conf.: 0.015 (+0.388...+0.418) - [0.2%]
Duration: 8 hours 26 minutes
4.Rollout2Bar/21 18/14 17/9* eq: +0.401 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
57.03% (G:25.85% B:2.07%)
42.97% (G:9.32% B:0.44%)
Conf.: 0.018 (+0.383...+0.420) - [0.3%]
Duration: 9 hours 00 minute
5.Rollout2Bar/21 24/20 18/10eq: +0.399 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
56.76% (G:26.18% B:1.57%)
43.24% (G:8.75% B:0.33%)
Conf.: 0.016 (+0.383...+0.415) - [0.1%]
Duration: 8 hours 13 minutes
6.Rollout2Bar/17 18/10eq: +0.380 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
56.77% (G:26.02% B:1.44%)
43.23% (G:8.98% B:0.34%)
Conf.: 0.019 (+0.361...+0.398) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 08 minutes
7.Rollout2Bar/21 24/20 17/9* eq: +0.374 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
56.67% (G:25.00% B:1.84%)
43.33% (G:9.28% B:0.40%)
Conf.: 0.019 (+0.355...+0.393) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 hours 17 minutes
8.Rollout3Bar/13 17/13eq: +0.369 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
56.43% (G:24.38% B:1.21%)
43.57% (G:9.16% B:0.42%)
Conf.: 0.023 (+0.346...+0.392) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 39 minutes
9.Rollout3Bar/9* eq: +0.363 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
56.56% (G:25.53% B:1.97%)
43.44% (G:9.00% B:0.39%)
Conf.: 0.035 (+0.328...+0.398) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 57 minutes
10.XG Roller++Bar/17 21/17 18/14eq: +0.417 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
57.21% (G:24.29% B:1.55%)
42.79% (G:7.87% B:0.34%)
1 8872 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 8871 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 3295 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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