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What and Why?

Posted By: David Presser
Date: Tuesday, 24 September 2013, at 5:06 a.m.

In Response To: What and Why? (David Presser)

The results are surprising to me, even after looking at the rollouts and the numbers.

I have a partial explanation which is strongly linked to the cube action in the next 2 rolls, but would appreciate it if someone could find a simpler explanation.





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 131
7 point match
pip: 50
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-FEbB------------bbbcb--:0:0:1:61:5:2:0:7:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout16/Off 3/2eq: +0.034
Player:
Opponent:		41.49% (G:20.50% B:7.09%)
58.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.026...+0.041) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 33 seconds
2.Rollout16/Off 4/3eq: -0.049 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:		42.27% (G:20.20% B:6.10%)
57.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.060...-0.038) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 19 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 131
Unlimited Game
Beaver
pip: 50
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-FEbB------------bbbcb--:0:0:1:61:0:0:2:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout16/Off 4/3eq: -0.076
Player:
Opponent:		43.61% (G:20.28% B:2.58%)
56.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.082...-0.070) - [88.9%]
Duration: 2 minutes 18 seconds
2.Rollout16/Off 3/2eq: -0.082 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		42.16% (G:21.20% B:2.17%)
57.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.089...-0.075) - [11.1%]
Duration: 4 minutes 11 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 131
Unlimited Game
Beaver
pip: 50
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-FEbB------------bbbcb--:1:1:1:61:0:0:2:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout16/Off 4/3eq: +0.145
Player:
Opponent:		42.12% (G:20.23% B:2.74%)
57.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.138...+0.151) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 56 seconds
2.Rollout16/Off 3/2eq: +0.086 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:		40.79% (G:21.07% B:2.13%)
59.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.080...+0.091) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 36 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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