The results are surprising to me, even after looking at the rollouts and the numbers.
I have a partial explanation which is strongly linked to the cube action in the next 2 rolls, but would appreciate it if someone could find a simpler explanation.

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 2 pip: 131 | 7 point match | pip: 50 score: 5
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-b-FEbB------------bbbcb--:0:0:1:61:5:2:0:7:10 |
Blue to play 61 |
1. | Rollout1 | 6/Off 3/2 | eq: +0.034 |
| Player: Opponent: | 41.49% (G:20.50% B:7.09%) 58.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.026...+0.041) - [100.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 33 seconds |
|
2. | Rollout1 | 6/Off 4/3 | eq: -0.049 (-0.083) |
| Player: Opponent: | 42.27% (G:20.20% B:6.10%) 57.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.060...-0.038) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 19 seconds |
|
|
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 131 | Unlimited Game Beaver | pip: 50 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-b-FEbB------------bbbcb--:0:0:1:61:0:0:2:0:10 |
Blue to play 61 |
1. | Rollout1 | 6/Off 4/3 | eq: -0.076 |
| Player: Opponent: | 43.61% (G:20.28% B:2.58%) 56.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.082...-0.070) - [88.9%] Duration: 2 minutes 18 seconds |
|
2. | Rollout1 | 6/Off 3/2 | eq: -0.082 (-0.006) |
| Player: Opponent: | 42.16% (G:21.20% B:2.17%) 57.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.089...-0.075) - [11.1%] Duration: 4 minutes 11 seconds |
|
|
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 131 | Unlimited Game Beaver | pip: 50 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-b-FEbB------------bbbcb--:1:1:1:61:0:0:2:0:10 |
Blue to play 61 |
1. | Rollout1 | 6/Off 4/3 | eq: +0.145 |
| Player: Opponent: | 42.12% (G:20.23% B:2.74%) 57.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.138...+0.151) - [100.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 56 seconds |
|
2. | Rollout1 | 6/Off 3/2 | eq: +0.086 (-0.059) |
| Player: Opponent: | 40.79% (G:21.07% B:2.13%) 59.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.080...+0.091) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 36 seconds |
|
|
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10