The results are surprising to me, even after looking at the rollouts and the numbers.
I have a partial explanation which is strongly linked to the cube action in the next 2 rolls, but would appreciate it if someone could find a simpler explanation.
  White is Player 2
score: 2 pip: 131  7 point match  pip: 50 score: 5
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=bFEbBbbbcb:0:0:1:61:5:2:0:7:10 
Blue to play 61 
1.  Rollout^{1}  6/Off 3/2  eq: +0.034 
 Player: Opponent:  41.49% (G:20.50% B:7.09%) 58.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.026...+0.041)  [100.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 33 seconds 

2.  Rollout^{1}  6/Off 4/3  eq: 0.049 (0.083) 
 Player: Opponent:  42.27% (G:20.20% B:6.10%) 57.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  Conf.: ± 0.011 (0.060...0.038)  [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 19 seconds 


^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 131  Unlimited Game Beaver  pip: 50 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=bFEbBbbbcb:0:0:1:61:0:0:2:0:10 
Blue to play 61 
1.  Rollout^{1}  6/Off 4/3  eq: 0.076 
 Player: Opponent:  43.61% (G:20.28% B:2.58%) 56.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  Conf.: ± 0.006 (0.082...0.070)  [88.9%] Duration: 2 minutes 18 seconds 

2.  Rollout^{1}  6/Off 3/2  eq: 0.082 (0.006) 
 Player: Opponent:  42.16% (G:21.20% B:2.17%) 57.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  Conf.: ± 0.007 (0.089...0.075)  [11.1%] Duration: 4 minutes 11 seconds 


^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 131  Unlimited Game Beaver  pip: 50 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=bFEbBbbbcb:1:1:1:61:0:0:2:0:10 
Blue to play 61 
1.  Rollout^{1}  6/Off 4/3  eq: +0.145 
 Player: Opponent:  42.12% (G:20.23% B:2.74%) 57.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.138...+0.151)  [100.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 56 seconds 

2.  Rollout^{1}  6/Off 3/2  eq: +0.086 (0.059) 
 Player: Opponent:  40.79% (G:21.07% B:2.13%) 59.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)  Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.080...+0.091)  [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 36 seconds 


^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10