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Making the 51$ correct

Posted By: Keene
Date: Monday, 7 October 2013, at 8:35 p.m.

In Response To: Congratulations to Rod Covlin, Peoria Winner, First Place in ABT!! (Stick)

The other thing about PR for players here is that we are using an average estimate, and applying it to a specific match. If player X has an average PR of 4.0, and player Y has an average PR of 5.0, then should X slot on an opening 51? What if player Y is playing better than average on that day, and player X is playing worse than average on that day? I mean - averages are that, an average of a sample set.

Additionally, who are we to judge what someone's average PR is? Can you watch a match and say 'Rod just played a 21.7' (In Rods case, perhaps we can), our own PR is an indicator of the amount of PR we are away from perfect (0.0), and as such plays that we may see as correct may in fact not be, and we are naturally then misjudging that play at least by the amount of PR that you lost by making a less than perfect play.

My point here is that the best we can say about someone elses PR is that its maybe better than our own, but we can only judge to our own skill level. For some players, Neil being a good example, he can make a far better judgement on that than say I could (I acknowledge, that on average, NK will play better than I).

Its all extremely subjective assessments based on qualitative PR numbers. I for one could only say that player x plays worse than me. Or player y plays about the same, or player Z is most likely better. But I dont think I could determine by how much in any of these cases.

Another excellent example of this is indeed Falafel - I believe that he himself, and in fact others (this may be inaccurate, and I may be misremembering) doesnt play the opening replies etc perfectly, and his core strength is mid-game and beyond. Undoubtedly, he is an excellent player, but would one adjust a mid game play or cube action because one knows he is much better in that area than you? Would he adjust a play because he knows he is better than most in the world in that?

All in all, I think its a difficult assessment to make, and even harder to apply.


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