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BGonline.org Forums
Calculating wining chance and....
Posted By: HOMINID In Response To: Calculating wining chance and.... (__1ERROR1__)
Date: Tuesday, 15 October 2013, at 10:29 p.m.
In positions like this its not necessary to calculate GWC chances at this moment in time. It is of academic interest only. It is painfully obvious that white is winning by some margin. The important thing is can white maintain this winning position. In other words how well or badly will white roll. There are only 5 bad rolls leaving fly shots. The chance of being hit are remote this is the time to be proactive. Its worth noting that there are 9 rolls that hit and cover the blot and some good gammon opportunities together with a 30% entry chance if hit. The arithmetic may be a little awry but i don’t think decimal points are needed in this instance , neither is further deep thought. Using roll odds to clarify cube situations is often the easiest method. One could kick this position around for ever and a day.
A big double, give brown something to chew over. Some players worry too much re GWC ,MWC , market , take points and whatever else and lose the plot in the process which is to take advantage of a great opportunity. I made the GWC 70% surprised me my system not designed for this type of position. My cavalier approach will not hold me in good stead with the BG purists but may help the average player. I played this out rolled 5-2 a bad roll , still managed a gammon, means nothing of course.
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