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Against a backgame, hit or not? - RO

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 26 October 2013, at 11:04 p.m.

In Response To: Against a backgame, hit or not? (Daniel Murphy)

20/14* is probably best, winning more gammons, but fewer games, as the rollout's cubeless game breakdown estimates suggest.

Unlimited match, Blue to play 5-1

White	176
Blue	114
Position ID: xHNkgBnM7g4IAg Match ID: QYkGAAAAAAAE

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	20/14*	+0.3483
			0.6177 0.3167 0.0140 - 0.3823 0.0492 0.0017 +0.5153 +0.3483 0.0017 0.0019 0.0005 - 0.0017 0.0011 0.0002 0.0045 0.0063
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1297 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 725783827 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	20/15 7/6	+0.3279 ( -0.0205)
			0.6407 0.2387 0.0108 - 0.3593 0.0498 0.0019 +0.4791 +0.3279 0.0016 0.0018 0.0005 - 0.0016 0.0010 0.0002 0.0039 0.0055
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 725783827 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	15/14*/9	+0.3051 ( -0.0433)
			0.6018 0.3185 0.0151 - 0.3982 0.0548 0.0022 +0.4802 +0.3051 0.0025 0.0028 0.0010 - 0.0025 0.0017 0.0002 0.0065 0.0091
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			677 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 725783827 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Against a backgame, hit or not?
  Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 20 October 2013, at 1:38 p.m.
  • Against a backgame, hit or not?
    Taper_Mike -- Monday, 21 October 2013, at 10:57 a.m.
    • Against a backgame, hit or not?
      Colin Owen -- Monday, 21 October 2013, at 12:05 p.m.
      • Against a backgame, hit or not?
        Taper_Mike -- Monday, 21 October 2013, at 6:23 p.m.
        • Against a backgame, hit or not?
          Rod -- Monday, 21 October 2013, at 9:16 p.m.
        • Against a backgame, hit or not?
          Igor -- Tuesday, 22 October 2013, at 4:31 a.m.
  • Against a backgame, hit or not?
    Grant HOffman -- Tuesday, 22 October 2013, at 1:27 a.m.
  • Against a backgame, hit or not? - RO
    Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 26 October 2013, at 11:04 p.m.