Out of idle curiosity I rolled out the position at dmp 1296 trials with seed 48268458 for all rollouts which usually yields a fluctuation of about +/- .008 and here are the results. I wanted to see if XG got better in this particular position with higher settings.
3 ply regular search space
- 23*, 4 wins 0.9%
- 23*, 19 wins 0.3%
3 ply gigantic search space
- 23*, 4 wins 1.4%
- 23*, 19 wins 1.2%
4 ply regular search space
- 23*, 4 wins 2.3%
- 23*, 19 wins 2.2%
4 ply gigantic search space
- 23*, 4 wins 3.3%
- 23*, 19 wins 2.7%
So it did climb with stronger settings but nowhere near where it should be. The problem is even on XGR+ as UBK noted XG is making ridiculous plays involving breaking the six point. Not only that though, there are other crunky plays that are clearly wrong that XG fubars on 3 ply either by misevaluating the position or the move filter simply not pushing enough/the right plays through.
     
 
         
 | | White is eXtremeGammon
score: 0
pip: 16 | | 1 point match | pip: 115
score: 0
Blue is eXtremeGammon |
|
| XGID=----ABCBDaA-A--A----------:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 41 |
| 1. | 3-ply | 15/11 10/9* | eq: -0.846 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 7.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.31% (G:22.29% B:11.45%) | |
|
| 2. | 3-ply | 10/9* 8/4 | eq: -0.850 (-0.004) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 7.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.51% (G:15.36% B:6.45%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 23 | | 1 point match | pip: 110
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--a-ABCBDA-AA-------------:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | 3-ply | 12/9 11/7 | eq: -0.837 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 8.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.85% (G:21.89% B:9.08%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
 
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 23 | | 1 point match | pip: 104
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--aABBBBCB-----A----------:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | 3-ply | 15/8 | eq: -0.834 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 8.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.68% (G:7.65% B:2.70%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Just countless positions that maybe aren't the monsters that are breaking the six point but still weigh in. GNU appears to have the same problem.
The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, Stick 0 (match to 1 point, post-Crawford play)
| gnubg | 2 |
|---|
 
 
|
| Stick | 147 | |
|---|
Position ID: AgAAwK6HUoAAAA Match ID: cAkmAAAAAAAE
|
| # | Ply | Move | Equity |
| | 1 | R | 24/23* 8/4 | -0.951 |
| | | 0.025 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | 0.975 | 0.714 | 0.586 | -0.951 | -0.951 | | 0.003 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | 0.003 | 0.017 | 0.014 | 0.005 | 0.005 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 729890753 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| • | 2 | R | 24/23*/19 | -0.962 ( -0.012) |
| | | 0.019 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | 0.981 | 0.764 | 0.463 | -0.962 | -0.962 | | 0.003 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | 0.003 | 0.018 | 0.012 | 0.005 | 0.005 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 729890753 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, Stick 0
| gnubg | 2 |
|---|
|
| Stick | 147 | |
|---|
Position ID: AgAAwK6HUoAAAA Match ID: UQkGAAAAAAAA
|
| # | Ply | Move | Equity |
| • | 1 | R | 24/23*/19 | -1.061 |
| | | 0.063 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | 0.937 | 0.149 | 0.052 | -1.076 | -1.061 | | 0.002 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | 0.002 | 0.004 | 0.002 | 0.006 | 0.006 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 729890753 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 2 | R | 24/23* 15/11 | -1.096 ( -0.035) |
| | | 0.061 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | 0.939 | 0.165 | 0.069 | -1.111 | -1.096 | | 0.002 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | 0.002 | 0.004 | 0.002 | 0.009 | 0.009 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 729890753 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |