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Is XG very weak at 14 off?

Posted By: mochy
Date: Saturday, 7 December 2013, at 2:29 a.m.

I have XG rollout same 41 play by Money game and by DMP.

Money Game

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 2 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----BCAD---AA-AA------aA-:1:1:1:14:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 14

1.	Rollout1	24/23* 23/19	eq: -1.050
	Player: Opponent: 6.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 93.59% (G:13.87% B:5.41%) Conf.: �} 0.008 (-1.058...-1.042) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 27 seconds
2.	Rollout2	24/23* 15/11	eq: -1.089 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 6.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 93.72% (G:16.39% B:6.56%) Conf.: �} 0.009 (-1.097...-1.080) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 25 seconds
1 759 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 56892183 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Search interval: Gigantic 2 760 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 56892183 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Search interval: Gigantic

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

DMP

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 2 1 point match pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----BCAD---AA-AA------aA-:0:0:1:14:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 14

1.	Rollout1	24/23* 15/11	eq: -0.975
	Player: Opponent: 1.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 98.76% (G:86.28% B:55.83%) Conf.: �} 0.009 (-0.984...-0.967) - [87.8%] Duration: 19 minutes 05 seconds
2.	Rollout2	24/23* 23/19	eq: -0.982 (-0.007)
	Player: Opponent: 0.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 99.12% (G:86.87% B:54.90%) Conf.: �} 0.008 (-0.990...-0.974) - [12.2%] Duration: 19 minutes 28 seconds
1 1382 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 99802378 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Search interval: Gigantic 2 1383 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 99802378 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Search interval: Gigantic

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

As you see there is a significant difference on winning chance in two situations no matter what play you choose.

Why is that? I know I stopped rollout at a different trial, but I guess it doesn't matter so much.

Since White can not change his checker play so much in two situations, I assumed Blue should have better winning chance in DMP than Money game.
Because Blue doesn't need to be afraid of getting BG or G in DMP so that he could play more aggressively.

Anyway, winning only 1.24% in this situation is WAY too small in my opinion as Blue can win almost 8.5% after close out White.

Messages In This Thread

• Is XG very weak at 14 off?
  mochy -- Saturday, 7 December 2013, at 2:29 a.m.
  • Is XG very weak at 14 off?
    Stick -- Saturday, 7 December 2013, at 2:36 a.m.
  • Is XG very weak at 14 off?
    Bob Koca -- Saturday, 7 December 2013, at 5:53 a.m.
    • Is XG very weak at 14 off?
      Mochy -- Saturday, 7 December 2013, at 8:44 a.m.
      • Is XG very weak at 14 off?
        Gregg Cattanach -- Saturday, 7 December 2013, at 2:29 p.m.
      • Is XG very weak at 14 off?
        Frank Berger -- Saturday, 7 December 2013, at 4:08 p.m.
  • Is XG very weak at 14 off?
    Bob Koca -- Saturday, 7 December 2013, at 5:58 a.m.
  • Is XG very weak at 14 off?
    Stick -- Saturday, 7 December 2013, at 10:51 a.m.
  • Is XG very weak at 14 off?
    Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 7 December 2013, at 2:20 p.m.
    • Is XG very weak at 14 off?
      Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 7 December 2013, at 2:30 p.m.
      • Is XG very weak at 14 off?
        Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 7 December 2013, at 2:42 p.m.