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Another Backgammon Position

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Friday, 20 December 2013, at 4:43 a.m.

In Response To: Another Backgammon Position (Stick)

Trailer needs 18.5% to take. Looks like a good recube per the Woolsey rule since it looks like a close t/p decision and it's a tough position in which to estimate winning chances.

I do think it's a take though. I'd make White about an 80/20 fav if he rolls boxes next time; about 1/3 wins if he rolls any other 6; and about 10% to win the race without hitting if he dances. That's about 6.6 wins in 36 which is a shade below 18.5%. Then there's the shot vig: 21-61 occurs 0.3% plus you will have hitting chances on your 25 dancing numbers. Blue's next roll might result in leaving three checkers on the 5-point and two on the four which will leave several blotting numbers next time.

A reference position that sort of applies here is when Stick's side has four checkers off, one closed out, and the other ten flush down to the ace vs. a CB with perfect distribution. There he wins 16%. Neither side meets this description in the actual position but I think the differences favor White by enough to take the recube.

Messages In This Thread

• Another Backgammon Position
  Stick -- Thursday, 19 December 2013, at 5:07 p.m.
  • Another Backgammon Position
    Keene -- Thursday, 19 December 2013, at 5:24 p.m.
  • Another Backgammon Position
    Rod -- Thursday, 19 December 2013, at 6:53 p.m.
  • Another Backgammon Position
    ah_clem -- Thursday, 19 December 2013, at 10:25 p.m.
    • Another Backgammon Position
      Keene -- Thursday, 19 December 2013, at 10:40 p.m.
      • Another Backgammon Position
        ah_clem -- Thursday, 19 December 2013, at 11:11 p.m.
  • Another Backgammon Position
    John O'Hagan -- Friday, 20 December 2013, at 4:43 a.m.
    • Another Backgammon Position
      Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 20 December 2013, at 5:15 a.m.
  • Rollout +
    Stick -- Saturday, 21 December 2013, at 4:41 p.m.