8a-2a cube action
Posted By: David Rennie In Response To: 8a-2a cube action (John O'Hagan)
Date: Saturday, 21 December 2013, at 2:18 a.m.
In Response To: 8a-2a cube action (John O'Hagan)
I would think the double is not in question based on the score and the threat of gammons. I don't know about the take. Black has those candlesticks and the stripped midpoint but he does have White's bar point so he has that going for him...which is nice. I'd put White's gammons at around 20%. I'm guessing their value is slightly elevated so let's say they're worth 0.6. I don't think Black's take point is crazy so I'd guess if White has less than about a 67% chance to win it's a take. I don't think White wins 67% from here. That's a lot of assumptions (and if I may add one more I assume they're not all correct) but I'd say this is a take. Or close.
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