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OTB & RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 21 December 2013, at 4:27 p.m.

In Response To: 8a-2a cube action (John O'Hagan)

XG doubled here and I took. Certainly a take at most scores since you currently only have one blot, you have the 18-point, the race is close, and the oppt is a little short on builders to fill in his 2 and 4-points. ATS it's a pass however. The leader's gammonless tp is 21.36% while the g/bg values are .652/1.493. This makes the g & bg-adjusted tp a little over 38% (using the g & bg numbers from the RO). Black's actual winning chances are 37%, not quite enough to take ATS.

is Player 2

score: 9
pip: 134
11 point match
pip: 128
score: 3

is Player 1
XGID=-B-B-BCbA---bC---e-e-A-aA-:0:0:1:00:3:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.36% (G:25.50% B:0.37%) 63.00% (G:25.12% B:0.36%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.64% (G:7.25% B:0.61%) 37.00% (G:7.14% B:0.41%)
Cubeless Equities +0.385 +1.046
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.790 (-0.210)±0.010 (+0.781..+0.800)
Double/Take:+1.046 (+0.046)±0.013 (+1.033..+1.058)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 15 minutes 19 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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