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On the Fifth day of Christmas

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 16 January 2014, at 10:55 p.m.

Christmas will be spilling over a lot this year. Hopefully Jesus doesn't hold it against me. Here are all the third roll rollouts where the opening roll was a 21 played 24/23 13/11. (21S-XX-XX-st)

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The next third roll batch, 31P-XX-XX-st, should come much quicker because at one point they were already organized together. Unfortunately a lot of these rollouts will be GNU rollouts and I have no plans whatsoever to reroll them with XG. Of the testing I have done on the early game rollouts there is virtually no difference whatsoever in the final results so I see no reason to reroll these positions. Well, the reason would be to add them to the XG opening database but either Xavier can add them add is noting they're GNU rollouts or someone else can reroll them. I don't think it's worth it. The rest of this message is copied and pasted from my first similar post.

When I undertook the third roll project I decided that I'd basically roll out all plays XGR+(+) deemed within' .020 and on occasion plays that were outside that threshold. My default settings were at least 5184 trials though you'll probably see a handful of rollouts where I stopped them short at either 2592 or 3888 trails because the correct play became clear quickly and I didn't want to waste the cpu cycles. The maximum trials I used were 15552 because the goal of this wasn't to figure out if Play A was better than Play B by .002 but to weed out any bigger errors. When you get to 15k trials there's not a whole lot of variance left to expect too much of a swing on what's reported. Usually +/- .004.

If you find a rollout that has only one play rolled out stop and think. It is likely that the other candidate play(s) were rolled out in a different file. For example if I rollout XX-XX-31 and I also need to rollout XX-XX-11 it's likely one or two of the plays will overlap. When I noticed and they did I tried to use the same seed in the separate files and not reroll any plays. The same goes if you notice a sequence missing. Make sure that another sequence wouldn't contain the same plays.

If anyone notices a rollout you feel is missing please let me know. I will either find it or do it and add it to the collection. Any questions, inquire within'. Xavier, if you see this you can obviously use these for the Opening Book if you want to create a lot of work for yourself. If you don't, I'll be emailing you sometime this month anyway.


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