In the OP Robertie recommends to slot the second point in favor of bringing two checkers down. The latter play indeed creates an unbalanced distribution, but slotting the 4pt is asking to be hit and the fact that white has 11 checkers in the zone should discourage us from offering white good chances to attack.
          
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 159 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 161
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b---AD-D---bDab-c-e----B-:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/9 13/8 | eq: -0.262 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.08% (G:13.00% B:0.76%)
55.92% (G:18.51% B:1.35%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.274...-0.251) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 04 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/4 | eq: -0.307 (-0.044) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.42% (G:11.99% B:0.63%)
56.58% (G:19.43% B:1.54%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.320...-0.293) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 41 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 24/20 13/8 | eq: -0.381 (-0.118) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.91% (G:11.51% B:0.65%)
58.09% (G:21.04% B:1.20%) | Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.400...-0.362) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 32 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11987154
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11987154
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
If white correctly played N (11/10 6/4) on the third roll, then slotting % (13/9 8/3) the 3pt comes just a hair ahead of two down D (13/9 13/8) partially due to duplication of deuces and fours.
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 159 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 161
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b---AD-D---cD-b-c-d-a--B-:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/9 8/3 | eq: -0.329 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.04% (G:12.78% B:0.73%)
56.96% (G:20.52% B:1.98%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.333...-0.326) - [92.1%]
Duration: 6 hours 20 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/9 13/8 | eq: -0.333 (-0.003) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.51% (G:12.67% B:0.76%)
57.49% (G:19.56% B:1.52%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.336...-0.330) - [7.9%]
Duration: 6 hours 09 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 24/20 13/8 | eq: -0.381 (-0.051) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.80% (G:10.99% B:0.70%)
58.20% (G:19.99% B:1.18%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.396...-0.365) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 57 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 13/4 | eq: -0.398 (-0.069) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.67% (G:11.17% B:0.54%)
58.33% (G:19.93% B:1.70%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.414...-0.383) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| |
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11987154
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11987154
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Note: If you see a long rollout like this one, it would usually be done by Smcrtorchs, so I will not explicitly give him credit every time.
The other two variants are very clear, nothing to discuss.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 159 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 161
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-a-AD-D---cD-b-c-e----B-:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 6/1* 5/1 | eq: -0.121 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.29% (G:13.84% B:0.28%)
53.71% (G:14.25% B:0.64%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 8/3* 5/1* | eq: -0.286 (-0.165) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.20% (G:12.25% B:0.35%)
56.80% (G:17.56% B:1.12%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 13/8 5/1* | eq: -0.288 (-0.168) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.73% (G:10.84% B:0.29%)
57.27% (G:15.69% B:0.79%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 159 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 161
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b---AD-D---cD--bc-e----B-:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 24/15 | eq: -0.195 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.08% (G:10.98% B:0.46%)
53.92% (G:17.09% B:0.83%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 24/20 13/8 | eq: -0.248 (-0.053) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.31% (G:11.21% B:0.49%)
55.69% (G:16.72% B:0.83%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 13/9 13/8 | eq: -0.287 (-0.092) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.30% (G:12.05% B:0.58%)
56.70% (G:17.92% B:1.27%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 13/4 | eq: -0.318 (-0.123) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.01% (G:11.28% B:0.50%)
56.99% (G:18.47% B:1.43%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller++ | 13/9 8/3 | eq: -0.341 (-0.146) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.67% (G:11.37% B:0.45%)
57.33% (G:19.45% B:1.80%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10