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An example: 21$-62

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Tuesday, 11 February 2014, at 5:02 p.m.

In Response To: Things have changed (David Rockwell)

62S is a relatively clear winner for money. However, other than DMP type scores, there is no other score in a five point match where 62S is best. The closest it comes is at 5a5a when it is close behind in third place. Even though it is close, notice the relative change between the move choices. This variance is caused by the difference in gammon values (and to a lesser extent cube action points) between money and 5a5a. I thought there might be something funny happening with the cube, so I ran 7a7a as a test. It was close to money. So, I concluded that 5a5a is not NMS because of the gammon values.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 164
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 167
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---dEa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 62

1.Rollout124/18 13/11eq: -0.2890
Player:
Opponent:
44.01% (G:11.27% B:0.59%)
55.99% (G:19.19% B:0.94%)
Conf.: 0.0025 (-0.2915...-0.2865) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 hours 46 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 13/7eq: -0.2983 (-0.0093)
Player:
Opponent:
43.31% (G:11.81% B:0.61%)
56.69% (G:18.25% B:0.90%)
Conf.: 0.0024 (-0.3007...-0.2960) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 hours 12 minutes
3.Rollout113/7 6/4eq: -0.3036 (-0.0146)
Player:
Opponent:
43.44% (G:12.23% B:0.63%)
56.56% (G:18.52% B:1.33%)
Conf.: 0.0026 (-0.3062...-0.3011) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 hours 14 minutes
4.Rollout213/11 13/7eq: -0.3111 (-0.0221)
Player:
Opponent:
43.09% (G:12.33% B:0.70%)
56.91% (G:18.77% B:1.29%)
Conf.: 0.0035 (-0.3147...-0.3076) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 17 minutes
5.Rollout213/5eq: -0.3148 (-0.0258)
Player:
Opponent:
42.89% (G:12.22% B:0.64%)
57.11% (G:18.27% B:1.11%)
Conf.: 0.0035 (-0.3183...-0.3113) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 12 minutes
1 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 22080951
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

2 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 22080951
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 164
5 point match
pip: 167
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---dEa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 62

1.Rollout124/22 13/7eq: -0.3128
Player:
Opponent:
43.28% (G:11.74% B:0.68%)
56.72% (G:18.12% B:0.97%)
Conf.: 0.0031 (-0.3159...-0.3097) - [52.4%]
Duration: 3 hours 36 minutes
2.Rollout113/7 6/4eq: -0.3132 (-0.0003)
Player:
Opponent:
43.40% (G:12.28% B:0.78%)
56.60% (G:18.47% B:1.40%)
Conf.: 0.0033 (-0.3165...-0.3098) - [41.8%]
Duration: 3 hours 42 minutes
3.Rollout124/18 13/11eq: -0.3154 (-0.0025)
Player:
Opponent:
43.90% (G:11.23% B:0.71%)
56.10% (G:19.12% B:1.00%)
Conf.: 0.0032 (-0.3185...-0.3122) - [5.8%]
Duration: 6 hours 16 minutes
4.Rollout213/5eq: -0.3249 (-0.0121)
Player:
Opponent:
42.94% (G:12.24% B:0.80%)
57.06% (G:18.31% B:1.20%)
Conf.: 0.0058 (-0.3307...-0.3191) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
5.Rollout313/11 13/7eq: -0.3261 (-0.0133)
Player:
Opponent:
43.07% (G:12.52% B:0.79%)
56.93% (G:18.81% B:1.28%)
Conf.: 0.0079 (-0.3340...-0.3183) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 50 seconds
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28968604
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

2 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28968604
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

3 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28968604
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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