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OLM 20140310B The Dilly Builders

Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Tuesday, 11 March 2014, at 10:51 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140310B The Dilly Builders (Jason Lee)

I'm not 100% confident on the take, so for sure, I'd redouble here.

Our raw TP is 12.5/38, around 33%. The oppositions basic gammons are 22% plus 22%*(7/36) = 26.5 @ 0.5 I think we can win 8% gammons @ 0.5, with our net gammons against being around 9%. Our adjusted TP is approximately 36%.

Any 5 by the opposition (13/36) plus 66 44 33 22 11 64 leave them with a very strong position. I roughly estimate this at 55.5+(44.5*9/36) = 66.5%. 33.5% is not enough to take.

Pass.

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