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43S-41X-54@-41@-66B-42P-63D-62$-C, and variant, Rollouts

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 11 March 2014, at 4:23 p.m.

In Response To: 43S-41X-54@-41@-66B-42P-63D-62$-C, and variant (Nack Ballard)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 163
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 123
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---bECC-B-d-B--b-cab----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

43S-41X-54@-41@-66B-42P-63D-62$-C
[N 7188] "<=20


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.84% (G:14.41% B:0.35%) 69.23% (G:14.14% B:0.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.16% (G:6.04% B:0.20%) 30.77% (G:6.09% B:0.21%)
Cubeless Equities +0.462 +0.933
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.7180.004 (+0.715..+0.722)
Double/Take:+0.711 (-0.008)0.004 (+0.706..+0.715)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.282)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.6%
Rollout details
20334 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 42614043
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.6%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 11 hours 11 minutes




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 123
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---bECC-B-c-B--c-d-b----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

43S-51H-54@-42U-66B-43Z-63D-54P-C
[D 7878] "<=20


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.67% (G:13.00% B:0.33%) 70.96% (G:12.91% B:0.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.33% (G:5.44% B:0.17%) 29.04% (G:5.55% B:0.17%)
Cubeless Equities +0.491 +0.989
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.779 (-0.008)0.003 (+0.776..+0.782)
Double/Take:+0.7870.004 (+0.783..+0.790)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.213)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 34172612
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.8%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 9 hours 40 minutes
Keene nailed it in his comments here. White's 1 pip that she gains by her slotting 6/5 is bigger than the 5 pips she gains by here non-slotting 13/8. (Part of what is going on is that White is unlikely to win this position on pure racing just because her deficit is reduced from 40 to 36. Impending board strength is more important.)

In short, contrary to pure pipcount reasoning, the lefthand position is N (No double) for Blue, and the righthand position is a D (Double), according to 20k XG rollouts.

[If your window has not been widened enough to view side-by-side diagrams, the "lefthand" position is first, and the "righthand" position is second.]

43S-41X-54@-41@-66B-42P-63D-62$-C. [N 7188] "<=20
43S-51H-54@-42U-66B-43Z-63D-54P-C.. [D 7878] "<=20

........Nactation tutorial
........Explanation of nacbracs
........Cube nacbracs

Nack

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