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21$-22E-F-C Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 11 March 2014, at 4:17 p.m.

In Response To: 21$-54S-F-42P-F-C.𤪛 (Nack Ballard)

Here's my money rollout that agrees in large with Igor's.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 184
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=ab--B-C-C---dEa--c-dA---A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.44% (G:27.25% B:2.97%) 65.26% (G:27.94% B:3.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.56% (G:6.21% B:0.27%) 34.74% (G:6.32% B:0.29%)
Cubeless Equities +0.546 +1.100
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.795 (-0.014)0.007 (+0.789..+0.802)
Double/Take:+0.8090.009 (+0.800..+0.818)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.191)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Using version 1
Double Decision confidence:99.4%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 22 hours 20 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

And a short one AtS (7a 5a)





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 184
7 point match
pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=ab--B-C-C---dEa--c-dA---A-:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.48% (G:27.74% B:2.96%) 65.54% (G:27.79% B:2.84%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.52% (G:6.50% B:0.30%) 34.46% (G:6.76% B:0.36%)
Cubeless Equities +0.556 +1.188
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.889 (-0.111)0.013 (+0.876..+0.901)
Double/Take:+1.016 (+0.016)0.021 (+0.995..+1.037)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20090499
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:93.7%
Duration: 38 minutes 59 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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