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21$-22E-F-C Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 11 March 2014, at 4:17 p.m.

In Response To: 21$-54S-F-42P-F-C.–7–5 (Nack Ballard)

Here's my money rollout that agrees in large with Igor's.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 184 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 159 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=ab--B-C-C---dEa--c-dA---A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	65.44% (G:27.25% B:2.97%)	65.26% (G:27.94% B:3.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34.56% (G:6.21% B:0.27%)	34.74% (G:6.32% B:0.29%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.546	+1.100
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.795 (-0.014)	±0.007 (+0.789..+0.802)
Double/Take:	+0.809	±0.009 (+0.800..+0.818)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.191)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Using version 1
Double Decision confidence:		99.4%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 22 hours 20 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

And a short one AtS (7a 5a)

		White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 184 7 point match pip: 159 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=ab--B-C-C---dEa--c-dA---A-:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	65.48% (G:27.74% B:2.96%)	65.54% (G:27.79% B:2.84%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34.52% (G:6.50% B:0.30%)	34.46% (G:6.76% B:0.36%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.556	+1.188
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.889 (-0.111)	±0.013 (+0.876..+0.901)
Double/Take:	+1.016 (+0.016)	±0.021 (+0.995..+1.037)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 20090499 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		93.7%
Duration: 38 minutes 59 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Cube action
  Keene -- Tuesday, 11 March 2014, at 1:57 a.m.
  • Cube action
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 11 March 2014, at 2:33 a.m.
  • Cube action
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Tuesday, 11 March 2014, at 3:04 a.m.
  • Cube action
    HOMINID -- Tuesday, 11 March 2014, at 12:38 p.m.
    • Cube action
      Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 11 March 2014, at 4:08 p.m.
  • 21$-54S-F-42P-F-C.–7–5
    Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 11 March 2014, at 3:26 p.m.
    • 21$-22E-F-C Rollouts
      Stick -- Tuesday, 11 March 2014, at 4:17 p.m.
    • 21$-54S-F-C.–7–5
      Nack Ballard -- Friday, 14 March 2014, at 5:06 p.m.
  • Cube action
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 11 March 2014, at 4:03 p.m.