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Cube action

Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Tuesday, 11 March 2014, at 4:08 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action (HOMINID)

This is not a conventional blitz as Chocolate has the ace point anchor. Nevertheless, this is a blitz and here are the facts of the case.

With the 4pt made, Chocolate's basic gammons are around 17%. He's shooting at a blot and will hit it 16/36 or 44.4% of the time. His gammons are now worth 17+(44.4*17) 24.5%. Cream has an immediate problem of having a man on the bar. I'd add an extra 5% bringing his gross gammons to 29.5%. Cream's position has de-evolved somewhat and I wouldn't add any extra beyond 5% here. Chocolate's net gammons are approximately 12%.

For money (as you've stated) this is a straightforward take, but here, Cream's raw TP is considerably higher i.e. 8/27, 29.5%. His adjusted TP (without re-cube vig.) is 41.5/? Given the overage, I'd expect it to be low.

You're evaluation of the position is in the ballpark, IMO.

I'd pass

Majestyk

		White is Player 2 score: 6 pip: 184 11 point match pip: 152 score: 4 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---aD-C--AdD---c-d-b--BA:0:0:-1:00:6:4:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Majestyk

Messages In This Thread

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  Keene -- Tuesday, 11 March 2014, at 1:57 a.m.
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    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 11 March 2014, at 2:33 a.m.
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    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Tuesday, 11 March 2014, at 3:04 a.m.
  • Cube action
    HOMINID -- Tuesday, 11 March 2014, at 12:38 p.m.
    • Cube action
      Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 11 March 2014, at 4:08 p.m.
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    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 11 March 2014, at 4:03 p.m.