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21$-54S-F-C.–7–5
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: 21$-54S-F-42P-F-C.–7–5 (Nack Ballard)
Date: Friday, 14 March 2014, at 5:06 p.m.
White is Player 2
score: 6
pip: 18411 point match pip: 158
score: 4
Blue is Player 1XGID=ab----E-D---dDa--c-dA---A-:0:0:1:00:4:6:0:11:10 21$-54S-F-C
–7–5. [N 620–36] "<=5
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 59.87% (G:22.04% B:1.82%) 59.98% (G:22.03% B:1.77%) Opponent Winning Chances: 40.13% (G:8.46% B:0.42%) 40.02% (G:8.52% B:0.50%) Cubeless Equities +0.354 +0.769 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.620 ±0.009 (+0.610..+0.629) Double/Take: +0.584 (-0.036) ±0.010 (+0.574..+0.594) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.380) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.9% Rollout details 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 30662414
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 5 hours 04 minutes
Above is the rollout of the position originally posted here but on Blue's previous roll. Without the 4pt, Blue is not far from a double, so with the 4pt (a huge difference) it's easy to understand why White should pass (i.e., at the –7–5 score). Indeed, it is evidently a (small) AtS pass even when the position is softened to 21$-22E-F-C (scroll to second rollout), with one of Blue's 6pt spares back on the midpoint.Nack
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