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21$-54S-F-C.𤪛

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 14 March 2014, at 5:06 p.m.

In Response To: 21$-54S-F-42P-F-C.𤪛 (Nack Ballard)





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 184
11 point match
pip: 158
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=ab----E-D---dDa--c-dA---A-:0:0:1:00:4:6:0:11:10

21$-54S-F-C
𤪛. [N 62036] "<=5


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 59.87% (G:22.04% B:1.82%) 59.98% (G:22.03% B:1.77%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.13% (G:8.46% B:0.42%) 40.02% (G:8.52% B:0.50%)
Cubeless Equities +0.354 +0.769
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.6200.009 (+0.610..+0.629)
Double/Take:+0.584 (-0.036)0.010 (+0.574..+0.594)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.380)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.9%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 30662414
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 hours 04 minutes


Above is the rollout of the position originally posted here but on Blue's previous roll. Without the 4pt, Blue is not far from a double, so with the 4pt (a huge difference) it's easy to understand why White should pass (i.e., at the 𤪛 score). Indeed, it is evidently a (small) AtS pass even when the position is softened to 21$-22E-F-C (scroll to second rollout), with one of Blue's 6pt spares back on the midpoint.

Nactation tutorial

Nack

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