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21$-54S-F-42P-F-C.–7–5

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 11 March 2014, at 3:26 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action (Keene)





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 184
11 point match
pip: 152
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=ab--B-D-C---dDa--c-dA---A-:0:0:1:00:4:6:0:11:10

21$-54S-F-42P-F-C


(The sequences 42P-21$-54S-F-C and 52S-21$-22Y-F-C and 52$-21$-22R-C are a roll shorter but not well-played.)

At the double-aggressive –7–5 score, there is a question of whether Blue should have shipped the cube the roll before (21$-54S-F-C). Probably not, but it looks close.

Regarding the position at hand, the reference made by Dmitriy here is appropriate. The money data for 21$-22E-F-C (diagrammed below) that I am aware of is j[D 801–15] "<=20, a rollout done by Igor (essentially money -- it was yes Jacoby / no beavers).

I can believe that a Blue spare advancing from midpoint to 7pt will push the .801 to over .9, though not to a money pass. However, factoring in the –7–5 score makes a significant difference and should ratchet it up to a match pass.

Double / Pass

Indeed, even 21$-22E-F-C (with the second 6pt spare back on the midpoint) might be a pass at –7–5. That position, diagrammed below, seems a closer take/pass decision at the score than the position diagrammed above.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 184
11 point match
pip: 159
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=ab--B-C-C---dEa--c-dA---A-:0:0:1:00:4:6:0:11:10

21$-22E-F-C


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