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BGonline.org Forums
Help! I need somebody....
Posted By: Rick Janowski In Response To: Help! I need somebody.... (neilkaz)
Date: Thursday, 20 March 2014, at 6:18 p.m.
Strange that the analysis ignores 8/7 8/6 which seems preferable to either 9/6 or 9/8 9/7.
It is important to note that although the game appears to be prime vs prime, because of the frailty and lack of flexibility in the primes it has now become very volatile with one side likely to become an overwhelming favourite in the next couple of rolls.
9/8 9/7 appears safe but it only leaves two attacking builders to threaten Black's Blot. Also note that an escaping 6 for Black results in a cash on the next roll over 90% of the time.
9/6 is riskier because of increased gammon risk but has the advantage of leaving three attacking builders. An escaping 6 will result in the position being too good (or a cash) on the next roll over 95% of the time. If the game was played cubelessly, the gammon losses would be a significant disbenefit to White because their would be a big equity difference between escaping 6s which hit and those that don't. However, with the cube in play, the equity swing is much more marginal, making the risky play far less risky in comparative terms. This is a good example of how cube ownership can have a very significant effect.
8/7 8/6 is as "safe" as 9/8 9/7 but has the advantage of creating three attacking builders. An escaping 5 for Black will result in a cash on the next roll over 90% of the time. (Although 51 is partially blocked, an escaping 55 is safer than to an escaping 66 after 9/8 9/7, and escaping 5s are there are less fly shot combinations with escaping 5s). Consequently 8/7 8/6 seems like the best play.
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