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BGonline.org Forums
Six-primed #4
Posted By: Robert Chow In Response To: Six-primed #4 (Timothy Chow)
Date: Wednesday, 2 April 2014, at 5:32 p.m.
Once again it's a question of whether I give up on winning (before White starts bearing off) and concentrate on saving the gammon or try to retain some small winning chances but increase my chances of getting gammoned by doing so.
Switching points with 6/4(2) is the best way of saving the gammon. If I manage to make my deuce point then it's very unlikely a second checker will be sent back. However, I see some immediate problems with this plan. Giving up my six point allows the instant killer 66: bar/19(2), 7/1*(2). Then White will have all the time in the world to pick up the second blot on my 8 point. Also, several numbers, 66, 65, 64, leaves a shot on the deuce point next roll. Without the deuce point, I may still have problems dismantling my board safely.
Since 6/4(2) is not that "safe" in terms of saving the gammon, I prefer the plan of going for whatever winning chances are left in the position (before the bear-off). My play is 8/7*/4 which makes 22 by White into a immediate prime-breaking number. This horror shot, 22, will persist for a couple of rolls (assuming I don't roll 33 or 44). Hitting White's spare checker on my 7 point take away his ability to play certain rolls if he comes from too quickly from the bar. When he enters his third checker from the bar, besides 22, then 21 and 23 will be prime- breakers (also 24 if I still have my 6 point).
In this position I think making the DMP play is correct.
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