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OTB and RO

Posted By: mandm1951
Date: Thursday, 3 April 2014, at 8:37 p.m.

In Response To: another f* cube decision (mandm1951)

This was an (online) tourny match vs a player I sort-of knew. I thought he was slightly better than me (about 50-75 Elo). The match progressed as one of those where all breaks seem to go against you. I won't bore you with the details. The luck difference was 6.28. My opp had better dice and played them well.

So, I found myself behind 9-0 and faced this cube decison. I knew it was a Take and that my opp wouldn't erronously drop. I also knew that if I hit, I would lose my market. Considering the score and the Elo difference, I thought this was a good opportunity to gain an extra point, so I Cubed. (I admit also that I was frustrated by the dice.)

As you will see in the RO below, XG says the cube was wrong. But, I was wondering whether, considering the Elo difference, it was good idea. (Are my RO settings ok? I don't really understand how to set them.)

 White is Player 2 score: 9 pip: 82 11 point match pip: 86 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--DBBBC-----b---a-Bcbbbba-:0:0:1:00:0:9:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

 Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 51.17% (G:5.28% B:0.11%) 51.19% (G:5.13% B:0.11%) Opponent Winning Chances: 48.83% (G:2.61% B:0.07%) 48.81% (G:1.82% B:0.04%) Cubeless Equities +0.036 -0.088 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.098 ±0.003 (+0.095..+0.100) Double/Take: -0.088 (-0.186) ±0.003 (-0.091..-0.085) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.902) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.6% Rollout details 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 3 minutes 12 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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