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OTB and RO

Posted By: mandm1951
Date: Thursday, 3 April 2014, at 8:37 p.m.

In Response To: another f* cube decision (mandm1951)

This was an (online) tourny match vs a player I sort-of knew. I thought he was slightly better than me (about 50-75 Elo). The match progressed as one of those where all breaks seem to go against you. I won't bore you with the details. The luck difference was 6.28. My opp had better dice and played them well.

So, I found myself behind 9-0 and faced this cube decison. I knew it was a Take and that my opp wouldn't erronously drop. I also knew that if I hit, I would lose my market. Considering the score and the Elo difference, I thought this was a good opportunity to gain an extra point, so I Cubed. (I admit also that I was frustrated by the dice.)

As you will see in the RO below, XG says the cube was wrong. But, I was wondering whether, considering the Elo difference, it was good idea. (Are my RO settings ok? I don't really understand how to set them.)

White is Player 2

score: 9
pip: 82
11 point match
pip: 86
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 51.17% (G:5.28% B:0.11%) 51.19% (G:5.13% B:0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 48.83% (G:2.61% B:0.07%) 48.81% (G:1.82% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities +0.036 -0.088
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.0980.003 (+0.095..+0.100)
Double/Take:-0.088 (-0.186)0.003 (-0.091..-0.085)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.902)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.6%
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 12 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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