This was an (online) tourny match vs a player I sort-of knew. I thought he was slightly better than me (about 50-75 Elo). The match progressed as one of those where all breaks seem to go against you. I won't bore you with the details. The luck difference was 6.28. My opp had better dice and played them well.
So, I found myself behind 9-0 and faced this cube decison. I knew it was a Take and that my opp wouldn't erronously drop. I also knew that if I hit, I would lose my market. Considering the score and the Elo difference, I thought this was a good opportunity to gain an extra point, so I Cubed. (I admit also that I was frustrated by the dice.)
As you will see in the RO below, XG says the cube was wrong. But, I was wondering whether, considering the Elo difference, it was good idea. (Are my RO settings ok? I don't really understand how to set them.)
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| XGID=--DBBBC-----b---a-Bcbbbba-:0:0:1:00:0:9:0:11:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 51.17% (G:5.28% B:0.11%) | 51.19% (G:5.13% B:0.11%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 48.83% (G:2.61% B:0.07%) | 48.81% (G:1.82% B:0.04%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.036 | -0.088 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.098 | ±0.003 (+0.095..+0.100) |
| Double/Take: | -0.088 (-0.186) | ±0.003 (-0.091..-0.085) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.902) | |
| Best Cube action: No double / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.6% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 3 minutes 12 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2