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OTB and RO

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 4 April 2014, at 1:56 a.m.

In Response To: OTB and RO (mandm1951)

Options >> Settings >> Rollouts - Make your default Moves 3-ply, cube decisions XG Roller.

That is the widely accepted default that everyone uses. While by and large your current rollout settings would still get the same answer as these settings and your settings will be faster, there will be times when the strength difference makes a difference. Best to hitch up the playing strength a bit and rollouts still shouldn't take too long.

When you say you cubed because of the score and the elo difference let's take a look at the first part of this. When the score is 2 away many away the 2 away player's raw take point (before figuring in gammons) is going to be 21-22%. People often have the misconception that being ahead so much must equate to a higher take point than your normal scores. This just isn't true.

While you usually do lose your market when you hit remember you don't "always" lose your market. A market losing sequence is both your own roll and your opponent's and when it comes back to you it's a pass. If you hit and the opponent enters and hops out [61], enters and covers his ace point [51] or enters and hits you back [depends on what number you hit with], you haven't lost your market.

It should also be clear that there aren't many gammons to be won in this position. You only hit 1/3rd of the time immediately and even then you aren't likely to win a gammon. If you figure your gammon value is slightly elevated from it's normal value of .500 to .600 you can see that your opponent is not going to have to adjust his take point that much. Maybe up to 25%?

So when you hit, depending on how you hit, let's say you're ~80%. That gives you ~9.5 games. Out of the remaining 24 games you're probably not even a favorite esp. with the looming immediate bad sixes [65 64 63 61] which leave a double shot +. Estimating your overall win percentage in the mid to low 50s. shouldn't be that hard to do OtB.

So let's push the upper limits of your OtB estimations saying you thought you'd win 55% of the time and win 10% gammons which when converted to wins would bump you up to 61%. That's the absolute upper limits of bad estimations and we know your opponent's take point is ~21-22%. We are far far far away from his drop point and it's not a situation where when we lose our market we lose a ton of gammons or anything.

The 50-75 elo difference, about 2 PR, isn't enough to make up for it in my opinion. This is a centered cube and scant gammons we're talking about. If there were a lot of gammons involved and it still was per the bot a big ND I would be more lenient. FWIW I put it into GNU with both the Jacobs50 and Jacobs100 staggered match equity tables and it still holds a big no double.


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