OtB initially all three plays were an option for me. I did rather quickly eliminate making the five point though. It seemed too passive allowing the opponent to hit, make his five point, or anchor up. Too many good numbers.
Hit one or hit two? Hitting one leaves twelve shots on that side of the board and adding in [33 11] we're up to fourteen shots and three blots. Hitting two leaves just twelve shots also counting [33], five blots, and it puts two men in the air at a time when we have enough checkers in the zone to do some damage if things go well. Having that many blots strewn around isn't a big deal since we're the ones on the attack and the opponent can only hit one of them on his turn. (except [11]) We're the ones on the attack so stringing out blots is less of a worry. Having our back checkers split to the 20pt also assures that if we are hit we're a lot more likely to make the best possible anchor when entering.
I can't quite remember why I only hit one. Maybe I was trying to prime two checkers or with equal board strength I didn't want to go so gung ho for the attack deep in my board. Hitting two, as XG says, is clear.
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| XGID=-a--B-DaB-B-eC---b-dAb--A-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:7:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 51 | |||||
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/7* 6/1* | eq: +0.296 | |||
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| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/7* | eq: +0.205 (-0.091) | |||
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| 3. | Rollout1 | 10/5 6/5 | eq: +0.185 (-0.111) | |||
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| 1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 39436743 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2