Dk. vs. World 2014 — Two Containment Positions

White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 57

9 point match

pip: 32
score: 7

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-AC---------------acbbbcbA:0:0:-1:11:7:2:0:9:10

White to play 11

Rollout¹

7/6 2/Off 1/Off

eq: -0.2366

Player:
Opponent:

40.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Conf.: ±0.0047 (-0.2413...-0.2318) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 44 seconds

Rollout¹

7/4 1/Off

eq: -0.2611 (-0.0246)

Player:
Opponent:

39.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Conf.: ±0.0046 (-0.2657...-0.2565) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 06 seconds

Rollout¹

7/5 2/Off

eq: -0.2651 (-0.0286)

Player:
Opponent:

38.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
61.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Conf.: ±0.0041 (-0.2692...-0.2610) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 45 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14543376
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Michi/Mochy (on top) to play 11

Michi and Mochy had barely more the 3 minutes left on the clock when this play came up. Mochy explained during the post mortem that he had to play quickly so that their bank time would be available during the subsequent games. The World Team still needed to win 7 points!

In very short order, 7/5 2/off, was played, keeping the closed board intact. This would be a fine play if there were no possibility to pick up a second checker.

As it stands, opening up the 1pt, and leaving a blot there to be hit, is the best way to play this roll. If the Denmark Team enters, there will still be a five-point block to contain them.

Neil’s XGR++ rollout can be found here.

White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 56

9 point match

pip: 32
score: 7

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-AC---------------acbbbbcA:0:0:-1:11:7:2:0:9:10

White to play 11

Rollout¹

7/5 1/Off(2)

eq: -0.2042

Player:
Opponent:

41.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
58.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Conf.: ±0.0045 (-0.2087...-0.1998) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 57 seconds

Rollout¹

7/6 1/Off(3)

eq: -0.3024 (-0.0982)

Player:
Opponent:

37.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
62.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Conf.: ±0.0044 (-0.3068...-0.2980) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 13 seconds

Rollout¹

7/4 1/Off

eq: -0.3136 (-0.1094)

Player:
Opponent:

37.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
62.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Conf.: ±0.0039 (-0.3175...-0.3097) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45.2 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14543376
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Tim’s Variant

In this variation, White spare has been moved down to his 1pt. It is possible to rip three checkers off in complete safety. Otherwise, White can rip two, and diversify his spares on the 5pt and 6pt. The fact that the latter play wins the rollout, demonstrates that picking up the second checker is a strong part of the motivation, both here, and in the original position.

White is Michi/Mochy

score: 2
pip: 44

9 point match

pip: 32
score: 7

Blue is Myhr/Larsen

XGID=-AC----------------bbbbcbA:0:0:-1:13:7:2:0:9:10

White to play 13

Rollout¹

4/Off

eq: -0.4145

Player:
Opponent:

32.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
67.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Conf.: ±0.0031 (-0.4176...-0.4114) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 55 seconds

Rollout¹

3/Off 2/1

eq: -0.4414 (-0.0269)

Player:
Opponent:

32.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
67.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Conf.: ±0.0033 (-0.4447...-0.4381) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 43 seconds

Rollout¹

6/3 2/1

eq: -0.4511 (-0.0367)

Player:
Opponent:

30.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Conf.: ±0.0030 (-0.4541...-0.4482) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 51 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14543376
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Michi/Mochy (on top) to play 31

At this point, the best way to win is to hold the strongest board you can for as long as possible. After this turn, you want to have a five-point board. Breaking two points will just mean that the Denmark Team will enter sooner.

Since you have to break a point anyway, ripping off a checker is essential. If you start by bearing off from the 1pt, however, you will have to break a second point with the 3. So start by bearing off from the 3pt. and then look around for a 1 that does not break a point.

Under no circumstances should you lift the remaining blot on the 3pt. If Denmark rolls a 3, you want to be hit.

Piling another checker on the 1pt won’t help. You want your spares positioned as high as possible. That will help you hold the board longer.

That leaves only one play, the correct 4/3.

Over the board, the World Team played 6/3 2/1.

Neil’s XGR++ rollout can be found here.

Mike

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