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Advanced Backgammon #117

Posted By: scotty
Date: Friday, 9 May 2014, at 4:32 a.m.

In Response To: Advanced Backgammon #117 (Igor)

if i understand the Jacoby rule correctly, gammons count as a single point if the cube hasn't been turned. Blue has 23 shots that hit, and 4 of those shots hit both blots immediately. White has already begun to crunch.

if blue fails to hit, white has 3s, 5s, and 6s which clear both blots (9 shots) plus 2s, 13, 31, 11 which safety (14 shots) with 13 shots leaving blue another chance to hit.

blue will hit 23/36 + (13/36 x approx 11/36) i think this is definitely a double.

Should white take or drop? If blue fails to hit on the first shot, does white have a recube? I think white would have a recube with better than 60% chance to escape or cover. What are the consequences of such volatility for appropriate cube action? I don't have the experience or background to make such decisions with confidence.

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