As was already mentioned in others' replies, there are many ways to go about this. I needed to get as precise of an answer as I could because even though everything leads to 'it's a pass', I was playing XG and needed to know how big of a pass it was. It is certainly correct for me to take this position if it's only a small pass. The bot generated take point is 23%, perhaps my own would be around 21%?
I started with the Keith Count as I always do. It gave me an 89-87 count which would be the point of last take for money. That puts me in a rough ballpark of 76-78%. That would mean a take for me even if it was the absolute edge of a money take. Still, if there are more means available to me why not use them.
As Daniel and Casper referenced, if I allow each pip to be worth ~2.5% in a race of this length and I'm trailing by 12 pips that would equate to 30% or an 80/20 break down and a clear pass.
Igor used Nack58 and came up with roughly the same number. If we use the EPC we get about 85 to 95 making it a 12 roll position with the point of last take being down 9 pips so a clear pass per the epc.
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| XGID=-BBBC-C-A---B-a--c-e-cc---:0:0:1:00:3:0:0:5:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 80.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 80.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 19.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 19.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.615 | +1.941 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.916 (-0.084) | ±0.002 (+0.914..+0.918) |
| Double/Take: | +1.328 (+0.328) | ±0.001 (+1.327..+1.329) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 35598716 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 2 minutes 06 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2