An amusing feature of this rollout is that, with the seed I chose, the equity was 1.000 to three decimal places both after 1296 trials and after 5184 trials. That's the main reason I decided to post it here.
BGO seems to favor no-Jacoby rollouts, but I made this one Jacoby beaver because it came up in a chouette. I was in the box as White; everyone doubled and I passed. We didn't record any positions from that session but I was interested enough in this one that I memorized it to check afterwards.
I was in bad form that night, and I'm not sure I was playing any better than the opposition, but supposing I had a skill advantage, how should that have swayed the decision? White's side is easy to play in the games that White loses, but isn't always that easy to play in the games that White wins. Of course Blue's side isn't necessarily easy to play in the turnaround variations either.
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| XGID=bB-B--C-B---dD---c-d-b-AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 65.07% (G:39.68% B:0.43%) | 65.59% (G:41.99% B:0.49%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 34.93% (G:8.93% B:0.52%) | 34.41% (G:9.46% B:0.59%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.608 | +1.272 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.790 (-0.210) | ±0.006 (+0.784..+0.796) |
| Double/Take: | +1.000 (+0.000) | ±0.009 (+0.991..+1.009) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 51.2% | |
| Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10