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| ||||
| XGID=bB-B--C-B---dD---c-d-b-AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
42P-51S-52S-55A-F-C [D 1000–212] "<=164 | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 65.045% (G:39.768% B:0.440%) | 65.555% (G:42.074% B:0.474%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 34.955% (G:9.066% B:0.521%) | 34.445% (G:9.550% B:0.600%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.6071 | +1.2701 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.7882 (-0.2118) | ±0.0011 (+0.7871..+0.7894) |
| Double/Take: | +1.0000 | ±0.0016 (+0.9984..+1.0016) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.0000) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 164600 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 85570326 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 50.0% | |
| Duration: 1 day 07 hours 37 minutes | ||
Last year Nack reported an interesting experiment in which he added 1 trial at a time to a close rollout. By this method he was able to get a result in which the top two plays agreed exactly to 4 decimal places. It looks like Nack was at it again this year.
In the amazing 164,600-trial rollout above, Nack produced a perfect reference position for cube actions. To four decimal places, which is the most that XG can display, the equity for the doubler is exactly +1.0000. The take/pass decision is an exact tie. Any improvement, such as advancing the blot on the 23pt up to the 22pt turns it into a pass. Any weakening, such as moving the same blot back to the 24pt, produces a take.
The nearest multiple of 1296 that is less than 164,600 is 164,592, a difference of only 8. A suspicious reader such as myself might suppose that Nack began with the exact multiple, and then added just enough trials to turn the take/pass decision into a perfect tie.
Be sure to check out the 7 related cube actions that Nack compares with the one above. They comprise a virtual primer for 5th- and 6th-roll cubes.
Mike