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one of my big blunders this weekend

Posted By: Keene
Date: Tuesday, 27 May 2014, at 7:33 p.m.

In Response To: one of my big blunders this weekend (Petko)

I'm going to guesstimate that:

All your hits will net in about 10/11 wins (11 hits total), the case where you roll a missing 9 will get you another 3.5/4 wins, so thats 14.5 wins on that set of rolls. On the remaining, you are going to average out to 5-7% wins on all the remaining numbers (which leave you exposed still), so 7% of 21.. is.. 1.5 wins. , so thats 16/36 wins. However, of those 16 wins, I think you win a gammon about 70-75% of the time on average (obviously much higher on the ones you hit with), so theres that factor too. Theres also the monstrous 55 and 66 which lose your market horribly.

To me, even though the volatility is nice and high, and in your favor - as you dont have any meaningful gammon losses, I still dont think its enough to rewhip. I suspect you are about 55-65% here in net wins, which includes some slime from the miss/miss combos, probably closer to the lower end than the higher end.

So, I will say big fat NRD/Take. My biggest problem with your position is that when you miss, you have surrendered cube ownership, and your opponent can rewhip a whole lot of the time, depending on where your lone checker ends up, and you get to face an uncomfortable 8 cube.

Now, I may be wrong, and frequently am, but will put forth my opinion anyway. Side question, would this be a money beaver?

K

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