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OLM 20140531A The Prime Factors
Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Sunday, 1 June 2014, at 10:30 a.m.
In Response To: OLM 20140531A The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)
When we play 4off 1off we enhance the chance of getting off in 5 moves.
White needs 37 pips to get off the gammon, a little less than 5 average moves.
What is the difference in having to get 37 pips in 5 or 6 moves?
race 37  40 = 71%.... 29% gammons
race 37  48 = 86%.... 14% gammons
So the difference is 15% gammons.

What is the riskdifference between 5 off and 4off 1off?
5off: {D6,D5,D4,D3,63,53,43} = 10/36 x 11/36 = 110/1296
4off 1off: {D6,D5,D4,65,64,63,62,54,53,52,42} = 19/36 x 11/36 = 209/1296
So the difference in hits is 99/1296 = 7,5%.
Since a hit occurs with at least 7 men off, a hit is only about 50% win, so the difference is lower than 4% wins.
Compared with the 15 % gammons the risk is worth it, even at this score.

Answer: 4off 1off

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