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All in? – 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Wednesday, 11 June 2014, at 12:18 a.m.

In Response To: All in? (christian munk-christensen)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 143
7 point match
pip: 116
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BA-C-DbC-cB-a-d-e------:1:1:1:00:4:0:0:7:8
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 88.098% (G:1.555% B:0.012%) 88.890% (G:1.566% B:0.007%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 11.902% (G:0.218% B:0.006%) 11.110% (G:0.136% B:0.006%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.7705 +1.2818
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.8746±0.0021 (+0.8726..+0.8767)
Redouble/Take:+0.8585 (-0.0161)±0.0070 (+0.8515..+0.8656)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.1254)
 
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 10.2%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25129244
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 51 minutes 59 seconds

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2014-May-14
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
MET: Kazaross XG2
BGO Msg. No. 66615-tm.xgp
[X 875-16] "<=5
[X 890-21] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I do not believe Stick had formulated his rule for doubling at 3-away, many-away at the time this position first was discussed. I think this is way he states it now:

Never double a contact position at 3-away, 6-away or more.

Even in this close case, the rule leads you to the technically correct action.

Mike

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