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The Anatomy of a Gammon

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Wednesday, 25 June 2014, at 6:03 a.m.

In Response To: OLM End of Match (Jason Lee)

One of the most interesting parts of the entire match was what I am now calling The Anatomy of a Gammon. I am referring, of course, to the penultimate game in which Keene repeatedly tried to warn his teammates of their increasing exposure to a gammon loss.

In the end, Keene was both right and wrong. When I briefly revisited the rollouts for that game, I was surprised how often the Dilly Builders were forced to choose between risking just a few more gammons on the margin in order to retain a decent chance of winning, or else to run, and give up many winning chances. Many of the rollouts support the decision not to run, and yet by small degrees, staying back eventually made the gammon inevitable.

It was tragic in a way. The gammon risk started relatively low, in the 20% range (I think), and then slow rose, adding just a few percentage points on each succesive turn.

Mike

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