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RO & comments

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 9 July 2014, at 2:47 p.m.

In Response To: I had this 66 vs. Akiko last wknd in Novi (John O'Hagan)

OTB, I incorrectly decided to hit, come out with one, and make the 4-point. A mistake since getting the last checker out is a higher priority. Making the 4 does increase my net g's but these increased gammon chances won't cause Akiko to pass a 4 cube since the leader's 4 cube gv is real low ATS (because of the 3 points of overage).

is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 115
11 point match
pip: 152
score: 6

is Player 1
XGID=-a-B-BB-BaB--A-AAcbcbbB-a-:1:1:1:66:6:4:0:11:10
to play 66

1.Rollout122/16 22/10 15/9* eq: +0.765
Player:
Opponent:		73.38% (G:13.64% B:0.61%)
26.62% (G:5.44% B:0.13%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.756...+0.775) - [100.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 51 seconds
2.Rollout122/16 15/9* 10/4(2)eq: +0.727 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:		72.77% (G:23.34% B:3.14%)
27.23% (G:10.50% B:0.43%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.713...+0.742) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 42 seconds
3.Rollout116/4 15/9* 10/4eq: +0.656 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent:		69.86% (G:21.79% B:1.31%)
30.14% (G:7.43% B:0.32%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.648...+0.665) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 23 seconds
4.3-ply15/9* 13/7 10/4(2)eq: +0.654 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent:		70.24% (G:21.06% B:0.88%)
29.76% (G:7.59% B:0.34%)
5.3-ply22/16(2) 15/9* 9/3eq: +0.609 (-0.157)
Player:
Opponent:		69.48% (G:12.15% B:0.46%)
30.52% (G:5.48% B:0.09%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

What is correct in a money game? The RO isn't stat sig after 5K games but it appears that getting both out is still the best play.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 115
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 152
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-a-B-BB-BaB--A-AAcbcbbB-a-:1:1:1:66:0:0:3:0:10
to play 66

1.Rollout122/16 22/10 15/9* eq: +0.908
Player:
Opponent:		73.03% (G:14.31% B:0.46%)
26.97% (G:5.74% B:0.17%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.903...+0.912) - [95.2%]
Duration: 27 minutes 15 seconds
2.Rollout116/4 15/9* 10/4eq: +0.902 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		70.45% (G:21.63% B:0.83%)
29.55% (G:7.16% B:0.30%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.896...+0.907) - [4.8%]
Duration: 12 minutes 13 seconds
3.Rollout222/16 15/9* 10/4(2)eq: +0.850 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:		72.65% (G:23.12% B:1.23%)
27.35% (G:10.45% B:0.50%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.836...+0.864) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 15 seconds
4.3-ply15/9* 13/7 10/4(2)eq: +0.810 (-0.098)
Player:
Opponent:		70.31% (G:21.07% B:0.88%)
29.69% (G:7.70% B:0.35%)
5.3-ply22/16(2) 15/9* 9/3eq: +0.731 (-0.176)
Player:
Opponent:		69.48% (G:12.18% B:0.46%)
30.52% (G:5.53% B:0.09%)
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

It's hard to understand why the 2nd best play is better than the 3rd since it wins about 2% less often while winning just 2% more gammons. Maybe because it gives you a better chance of offering an efficient redouble?

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