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OLM 20140726A The Prime Factors -- CONSULTATION

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Sunday, 27 July 2014, at 10:38 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140726A The Prime Factors -- CONSULTATION (Jason Lee)

Thanks Mike,

your 3rd question sharpens my analysis.

I have overseen the fact that in the variation b/19 4x3 we can (after a fan) safety one or both of our blots to the 1- or 2-point.

I had also overseen that {45,32,D2,D5,D3} give a blotless cover.

I correct the last part of my analysis here:

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After b/19 4x3 the situation is more complex.

We lose in 14/36, we win 6/36 (the returns).

In case of a non-hit (16/36) we can cover of safety both blots (1 +{45,32,D2,D5,D3}, chance 18/36), semi-cover (4 or 5, chance 13/36) or non-cover (5/36).

After covering (8 games), I guess 8 wins (of which 1 gammon)

Of the semi-covers (5 games), we can safety the other blot in almost half of the cases,

I guess 4 wins (of which 1 gammon) and 1 loss.

After non-covering (3 games), we can safety one blot most of the times. I guess 2 wins (no gammons) and 1 loss.

Totally I count 20 wins and 16 losses and 2 extra (compared to the safe variation) gammons.

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Bar/18 only gave 19 wins and 17 losses.

The overall conclusion is that the extra risk is allowed because of the blot in his board and we don't give white a chance to consolidate his position.

So I change my mind and answer:

B/19 4x3

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