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OLM 20140726A The Prime Factors  CONSULTATION
Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Sunday, 27 July 2014, at 10:38 a.m.
In Response To: OLM 20140726A The Prime Factors  CONSULTATION (Jason Lee)
Thanks Mike,
your 3rd question sharpens my analysis.
I have overseen the fact that in the variation b/19 4x3 we can (after a fan) safety one or both of our blots to the 1 or 2point.
I had also overseen that {45,32,D2,D5,D3} give a blotless cover.
I correct the last part of my analysis here:

After b/19 4x3 the situation is more complex.
We lose in 14/36, we win 6/36 (the returns).
In case of a nonhit (16/36) we can cover of safety both blots (1 +{45,32,D2,D5,D3}, chance 18/36), semicover (4 or 5, chance 13/36) or noncover (5/36).
After covering (8 games), I guess 8 wins (of which 1 gammon)
Of the semicovers (5 games), we can safety the other blot in almost half of the cases,
I guess 4 wins (of which 1 gammon) and 1 loss.
After noncovering (3 games), we can safety one blot most of the times. I guess 2 wins (no gammons) and 1 loss.
Totally I count 20 wins and 16 losses and 2 extra (compared to the safe variation) gammons.

Bar/18 only gave 19 wins and 17 losses.
The overall conclusion is that the extra risk is allowed because of the blot in his board and we don't give white a chance to consolidate his position.
So I change my mind and answer:
B/19 4x3

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