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Short rollouts of variants (partial spoilers)

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 7 September 2014, at 5:34 p.m.

In Response To: Please explain this to an inferior player (Timothy Chow)

Cleaning up White's blot didn't seem to have much effect, but there are other seemingly subtle changes that have a noticeable effect. Can't say I understand what's going on in all of these.


Variant 1





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 133
Unlimited Game
pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---bBCB-C---bA-B-badbBb---:0:0:1:12:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 12

1.Rollout113/10eq: +0.321
Player:
Opponent:
57.76% (G:14.12% B:0.54%)
42.24% (G:9.72% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.310...+0.333) - [99.2%]
Duration: 17 minutes 34 seconds
2.Rollout113/11 5/4eq: +0.301 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
57.41% (G:13.94% B:0.50%)
42.59% (G:9.64% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.289...+0.313) - [0.8%]
Duration: 16 minutes 27 seconds
3.Rollout115/13 5/4eq: +0.283 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
57.15% (G:13.38% B:0.54%)
42.85% (G:10.25% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.271...+0.295) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 30 seconds
4.XG Roller++15/14 15/13eq: +0.213 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent:
55.47% (G:12.59% B:0.43%)
44.53% (G:9.56% B:0.28%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


Variant 2





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 131
Unlimited Game
pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BbCB-C---bA--BbadbBb---:0:0:1:12:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 12

1.Rollout113/10eq: -0.106
Player:
Opponent:
46.74% (G:11.16% B:0.45%)
53.26% (G:12.11% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.119...-0.093) - [73.3%]
Duration: 17 minutes 01 second
2.Rollout116/13eq: -0.112 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
46.53% (G:9.24% B:0.33%)
53.47% (G:10.53% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.123...-0.100) - [26.7%]
Duration: 16 minutes 37 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


Variant 3





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 133
Unlimited Game
pip: 147
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---bBCB-C---b-A-BbadbBb---:0:0:1:12:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 12

1.Rollout116/15 16/14eq: +0.240
Player:
Opponent:
55.73% (G:13.78% B:0.50%)
44.27% (G:10.72% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.228...+0.252) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 53 seconds
2.Rollout116/14 5/4eq: +0.201 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
54.52% (G:13.74% B:0.49%)
45.48% (G:10.96% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.188...+0.215) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 45 seconds
3.Rollout114/11eq: +0.196 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
54.55% (G:13.93% B:0.51%)
45.45% (G:10.54% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.183...+0.208) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 48 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


Variant 4





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 135
Unlimited Game
pip: 148
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---bBCB-C---bA--BbadbbB---:0:0:1:12:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 12

1.Rollout116/13eq: -0.018
Player:
Opponent:
49.15% (G:12.15% B:0.44%)
50.85% (G:12.87% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.031...-0.005) - [74.2%]
Duration: 16 minutes 18 seconds
2.Rollout113/10eq: -0.024 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
48.96% (G:12.32% B:0.48%)
51.04% (G:12.54% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.038...-0.011) - [24.8%]
Duration: 16 minutes 27 seconds
3.Rollout113/11 5/4eq: -0.038 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
48.74% (G:12.27% B:0.44%)
51.26% (G:12.95% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.051...-0.024) - [1.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 06 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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