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BGonline.org Forums
Rollout
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Rollout (Seth)
Date: Thursday, 9 October 2014, at 12:04 a.m.
My playing group also feels that 52 is an "accursed" roll. Like many other gut feelings in backgammon, this sort of thing can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. That is, you notice the times that 52 is bad and overlook the times that it's good. Still, I think that it can be partially explained as follows.
The feeling that a 5 is awkward number stems mostly, I believe, from the initial setup, where of course 5's are awkward. On the first roll of the game, 5's are illegal from two of your points, and play somewhat awkwardly from your other two points. These effects persist into the middle game somewhat, although as the game progresses, at least two other factors counteract it partially: (1) an entering 5 from the bar is often good, and (2) a 5 is an above-average racing number.
I'm not sure I have such a good explanation for why many people have a worse impression of 52 than of 51. (For example, one thing I've noticed is that 52 from the bar often hits bar/18*, while 51 from the bar doesn't seem to hit nearly as often.) Maybe it's because there is often a way to play an awkward ace that doesn't feel so bad. For example, if you roll a poor 51 and the best play involves exposing a blot with 6/5, then the computer's numerical estimate of the luck may be worse than what you feel psychologically because it may feel "constructive" to slot the 5pt.
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