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When are you too good to double in a match?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 2 November 2014, at 6:45 p.m.

In Response To: When are you too good to double in a match? (Trunky)

Trunky wrote:

Is this saying 'if my chances of winning are below 98% I should redouble else I should play on'?

No.

Do you understand how to use the takepoint and gammon value information to decide whether to take or drop? I was taking for granted that you do, but the above question makes me wonder.

Let me repeat some of what has been said before. There's no simple formula for deciding whether to play on. If it were as simple as, "if my chances of winning are below 98% then redouble" then someone would have said so already.

Like any doubling decision, a too-good decision should be based on what is going to happen in the very next exchange. Your gammon value and how likely you are to win a single or a gammon are useful for figuring out whether your opponent has a take or a drop, but do not give you a simple formula for deciding whether to play on. There's no simple formula for deciding whether to play on.

First make sure you understand how to assess whether your opponent has a take or a drop. If your opponent has a clear drop then you can think about playing on, based on whether your opponent is threatening to get a takable position in the very next exchange.

Oh, and one last thing that I may have forgotten to say: There's no simple formula for deciding whether to play on.

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