       
 
           
 | | White is akaBOB
score: 3
pip: 130 | | 5 point match | pip: 71
score: 3
Blue is CLB |
|
| XGID=-b-DDCBaB---a-a----bbbbb--:1:-1:1:51:3:3:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/2 | eq: +0.267 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.35% (G:25.04% B:5.26%)
36.65% (G:5.54% B:0.43%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.265...+0.268) - [100.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 57 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/7* 7/2 | eq: +0.205 (-0.062) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.23% (G:34.49% B:12.51%)
39.77% (G:5.16% B:0.38%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.203...+0.207) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 00 second |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/3 8/7* | eq: +0.149 (-0.118) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.43% (G:33.45% B:12.52%)
42.57% (G:2.03% B:0.15%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.146...+0.151) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 04 seconds |
|
| |
1 5194 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is akaBOB
score: 0
pip: 130 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 71
score: 0
Blue is CLB |
|
| XGID=-b-DDCBaB---a-a----bbbbb--:1:-1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/7* 7/2 | eq: +0.348 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.24% (G:29.48% B:3.43%)
37.76% (G:6.99% B:0.25%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.345...+0.352) - [100.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 05 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/3 8/7* | eq: +0.308 (-0.040) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.38% (G:28.06% B:3.43%)
40.62% (G:2.26% B:0.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.304...+0.312) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 08 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/2 | eq: +0.291 (-0.057) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.30% (G:15.00% B:0.78%)
34.70% (G:6.96% B:0.23%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.288...+0.294) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 01 second |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Here are the two rollouts for DMP and money play.
As you can see 8/3/2 is correct at DMP and 8/7*/2 is the right play for money because of the extra gammons.
It is rare to leave 11 (or 12) shots instead of six against a near perfect home board but the delayed jeopardy from the hitting play is twofold: 1) most sixes next turn (I actually rolled 65!) 2) the later shots generated because of the open 2-pt.
Note that even if White has a closed board 8/7*, 8/3 is wrong! I certainly learnt something from this position and hope you have too. For a start 8/2 wasn't in my list of candidate plays. Backgammon is indeed a game of infinite variety and subtlety.