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Learning process in BG

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 25 November 2014, at 4:00 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Fatboy)

Fatboy wrote:

How come some things seem so clear and other things I cant work out no matter how long I look at them?

Here's a fanciful analogy that might be helpful.

Imagine a thousand gremlins of varying sizes, from Big Monster Gremlin #1000 down to Micro Tiny Gremlin #1. They get to vote on which play is best. The votes, however, are not equally weighted. The weight w(n) of the vote of Gremlin #n is randomly chosen from 1 to n. So the votes of big Gremlins tend to get more weight (but not always).

In any election there are only a few candidates. If you're trying to predict the outcome of the election, you might pick the right candidate just by sheer luck. You can do better if you know the predilections of the biggest Gremlins (like Hit Gremlin and 5pt Gremlin and DMP Gremlin). However, you'll be wrong some of the time unless you understand all 1000 Gremlins thoroughly. The tricky thing is that you can easily convince yourself that you are a more reliable predictor than you really are because your limited knowledge of the big Gremlins might lead to the right candidate (simply because the candidates are limited) even though the real story involves a complicated combination of Gremlins that you are oblivious to.

Messages In This Thread

• When in doubt, hit and make the 5pt and pay later and make the DMP play
  Timothy Chow -- Friday, 14 November 2014, at 6:24 p.m.
  • When in doubt, hit and make the 5pt and pay later and make the DMP play
    ah_clem -- Friday, 14 November 2014, at 7:35 p.m.
  • When in doubt, hit and make the 5pt and pay later and make the DMP play
    Keene -- Friday, 14 November 2014, at 7:59 p.m.
    • When in doubt, hit and make the 5pt and pay later and make the DMP play
      christian munk-christensen -- Friday, 14 November 2014, at 9:45 p.m.
  • When in doubt, hit and make the 5pt and pay later and make the DMP play
    TarHeelFan -- Saturday, 15 November 2014, at 1:21 a.m.
  • When in doubt, hit and make the 5pt and pay later and make the DMP play
    Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 15 November 2014, at 2:12 a.m.
  • When in doubt, hit and make the 5pt and pay later and make the DMP play
    neilkaz -- Saturday, 15 November 2014, at 4:09 a.m.
  • Rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 15 November 2014, at 5:18 p.m.
    • Rollout
      Fatboy -- Monday, 17 November 2014, at 12:12 a.m.
      • Learning process in BG
        Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 25 November 2014, at 4:00 p.m.
        • Learning process in BG
          lucky -- Tuesday, 25 November 2014, at 9:43 p.m.
        • To the Prime Factors:
          Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 25 November 2014, at 11:58 p.m.
          • To the Prime Factors:
            neilkaz -- Wednesday, 26 November 2014, at 6:05 p.m.
            • To the Prime Factors:
              Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 26 November 2014, at 9:34 p.m.
            • To the Prime Factors:
              Casper Van der Tak -- Thursday, 27 November 2014, at 12:02 a.m.
        • Learning process in BG
          Ian Dunstan -- Wednesday, 26 November 2014, at 8:38 a.m.
    • When in doubt, hit and make the 5pt and pay later and make the DMP play
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 25 November 2014, at 3:01 p.m.