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XG 3 Ply Error #2 - 3 ply + Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 16 December 2014, at 10:18 p.m.

In Response To: XG 3 Ply Error #2 (Stick)

While 3 ply came close to passing it didn't and therefore ended up making a huge blunder. To me it's just interesting to see the problems where 3 ply isn't enough. 4 ply and up all come up with the right cube action but still seriously underestimate the doubler's equity after DT.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 86
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 148
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a---BBBBB----B----ccBdAbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 3-ply No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.37% (G:6.66% B:0.10%) 78.37% (G:6.66% B:0.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.63% (G:6.44% B:0.09%) 21.63% (G:6.44% B:0.09%)
Cubeless Equities +0.570 +1.139
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.839 (-0.150)
Redouble/Take:+0.989
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.011)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 86
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 148
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a---BBBBB----B----ccBdAbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.37% (G:7.78% B:0.22%) 81.34% (G:8.93% B:0.27%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.63% (G:6.37% B:0.04%) 18.66% (G:6.20% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities +0.603 +1.313
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.895 (-0.105)±0.014 (+0.881..+0.909)
Redouble/Take:+1.235 (+0.235)±0.024 (+1.212..+1.259)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 3265422
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 17 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release

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