| |
BGonline.org Forums
Mochy's blunder 05
Posted By: Taper_Mike In Response To: Mochy's blunder 05 (mochy)
Date: Thursday, 12 February 2015, at 11:30 p.m.
First of all, these are my observations prior to checking XG or reading the posts of others.
X (Hit and split) = 24/21 6/2* is the play I saw first. After noticing that it leaves return shots when White rolls a 1, 2, or 5, I discarded it. The race is too close for that kind of loose play. Blue trails in the priming battle, and White has 11 checkers in the zone.
P (Point) = 8/5, 6/5 is the next play I considered. It plugs a big hole in Blue’s board, while leaving shots with 1, 7, 9, and 11. That’s 11 aces plus 4 sevens, 4 eights, and 2 elevens, making 21 shots in all. This may be too many. Let’s examine safer plays and then decide.
d (down) = 13/9 11/8 is completely safe. It creates a number of point-making rolls for the next turn, including 10 that make the 5pt. It also leaves White free to make a point whenever the dice allow it.
Z (Reverse split) = 24/21, 13/9 comes under the gun. By bidding for an advanced anchor, this play addresses one of the biggest weaknesses in Blue’s position. White may be forced to attack, but at least for now, board strengths are equal. White would have 6 large rolls (64, 63, 54) that hit outside, and small numbers to hit inside (2, 4, and maybe 5). As White has 11 checkers in the zone, this is a high-risk play. It creates options for an opponent who otherwise might be tempted to break his midpoint.
H (Hit) = 13/10 6/2* is interesting. It offers return hits with any 2, plus 65, 55, 51, 31, and 11, making 19 shots in all.
I can see why Mochy asks for help. With little confidence, I would try making the 5pt. Unlike the other alternatives that are almost equally risky, it grabs a permanent asset.
Spoiler Alert: I have now checked XGR++ and read the relpies of others. So, ...
My play and analysis are not as succinct as the one Stick likes, but they seem to be on target.
Mike
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.