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3ply-3ply 10000 times Rollout + my thought

Posted By: Mochy
Date: Wednesday, 15 July 2015, at 2:42 p.m.

In Response To: Interesting Position from a 25p against michy (Mochy)

		White is プレーヤー 2 score: 5 pip: 190 25 point match pip: 152 score: 5 Blue is プレーヤー 1
XGID=aB-e-BBBB-A----b---bcbD---:1:1:1:00:5:5:0:25:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	66.98% (G:36.44% B:1.64%)	67.22% (G:37.35% B:1.80%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.02% (G:8.36% B:0.42%)	32.78% (G:8.34% B:0.52%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.641	+1.304
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.897 (-0.103)	±0.006 (+0.891..+0.902)
Redouble/Take:	+1.038 (+0.038)	±0.009 (+1.029..+1.047)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Search interval: Huge
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 54 minutes 52 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

I have four checkers stacked on the 22pt, which usually suggest big no double. However I am up so many pips, keep decent 4 prime, he is SIX back men stacked and one of them are even on the bar. I have some bad rolls (combination roll of 1,2,3) but none of them crack my board at least for a turn. He needs lot of six to spring around unless he enters on the 21pt. He has 8 numbers to come out immediately but he has many more bad numbers. (9 dance + 52 53 32 42 44) Of course I could win tons of gammons if things going well.

What happend over the board was that he took the cube and cashed 4 points much later. You can see them in video, if you like. https://youtu.be/eov8yXKhmhQ?t=1h33m39s

Messages In This Thread

• Interesting Position from a 25p against michy
  Mochy -- Sunday, 12 July 2015, at 7:02 p.m.
  • Interesting Position from a 25p against michy
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 12 July 2015, at 7:22 p.m.
    • Interesting Position from a 25p against michy
      Fatboy -- Sunday, 12 July 2015, at 9:50 p.m.
  • Interesting Position from a 25p against michy
    David Rennie -- Sunday, 12 July 2015, at 7:43 p.m.
  • Interesting Position from a 25p against michy
    Stick -- Monday, 13 July 2015, at 12:20 a.m.
    • Interesting Position from a 25p against michy
      Igor -- Monday, 13 July 2015, at 12:31 a.m.
      • Interesting Position from a 25p against michy
        Stick -- Tuesday, 14 July 2015, at 1:33 a.m.
  • Interesting Position from a 25p against michy
    Snua -- Monday, 13 July 2015, at 2:29 p.m.
    • Interesting Position from a 25p against michy
      Colin Owen -- Monday, 13 July 2015, at 7:51 p.m.
      • Interesting Position from a 25p against michy
        David Rennie -- Monday, 13 July 2015, at 8:35 p.m.
        • Interesting Position from a 25p against michy
          Michael G -- Tuesday, 14 July 2015, at 1:17 a.m.
    • Interesting Position from a 25p against michy
      neilkaz -- Monday, 13 July 2015, at 8:07 p.m.
  • Interesting Position from a 25p against michy
    Keene -- Monday, 13 July 2015, at 3:22 p.m.
  • 3ply-3ply 10000 times Rollout + my thought
    Mochy -- Wednesday, 15 July 2015, at 2:42 p.m.
    • 3ply-3ply 10000 times Rollout + my thought
      Stick -- Wednesday, 15 July 2015, at 5:29 p.m.
      • 4-ply/XGR rollout
        Petter Bengtsson -- Wednesday, 15 July 2015, at 6:20 p.m.
      • 3ply-3ply 10000 times Rollout + my thought
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 15 July 2015, at 7:08 p.m.