Phil "and one of the top players in the world agreed with our decision".
Did said "top" player fully realize the score and cube level or was he just walking by and took a quick glance when you ask him to? Thereby, and as often happens to me when shown positions when I have much else on my mind, maybe he/she made a hasty decision or little more than an offhand comment.
Honestly anyone who, once he realizes that this cube is match decisive and cannot them quickly state a TP of 15-16% doesn't deserve to be called a top player.
If they still get it wrong, they need to spend a few hours of serious study on short races.
I know this reference position. I also rolled it out 500 times almost 40 years ago, and realized that it was a close take.
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| XGID=----AAA------------aa-a---:2:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 75.654% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 75.654% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 24.346% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 24.346% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.5131 | +1.0262 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.6738 (-0.2890) | |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.9628 | |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.0372) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
I need to know no more than this to know that the match cube is an easy take.
Moving a checker in my position from the 6 pt to stack on the 5 pt doesn't help Blue all that much but makes it a pass. Then moving the checker from the 3 to the 2 does help, but certainly can't help enough to make this less than 16%.