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65R-31P-52D-33 (with spoiler)

Posted By: Igor
Date: Thursday, 3 September 2015, at 11:27 p.m.

In Response To: Early game double 3's (Timothy Chow)

I changed the subject line in hopes to draw Nack's attention to the thread and for convenience of future search.

Let's start with what we know. We know the third roll 31P-65R-33 for money. Making 21 and 10 pts (B) beats making the 7pt (P) by about 0.025. Here is David Rockwell's rollout:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 156
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BD-B---fE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 33

1.Rollout124/21(2) 13/10(2)eq: +0.449
Player:
Opponent:		59.94% (G:16.91% B:0.42%)
40.06% (G:5.80% B:0.22%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.443...+0.456) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 38 minutes
2.Rollout113/7(2)eq: +0.422 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:		59.43% (G:19.93% B:0.64%)
40.57% (G:9.08% B:0.43%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.415...+0.430) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
3.Rollout124/21(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.405 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:		59.04% (G:16.27% B:0.39%)
40.96% (G:5.30% B:0.19%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.399...+0.412) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79423149
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Now, in the OP white has two more checkers in the zone and this should make B come even further ahead of P for money.

The hardest question is: how does the score affect our decision? I can imagine that a more offence-oriented P comes up in relative equity AtS, but I'm not sure that the score is a sufficient factor to make it the best play.

For this reason I'd stay with B -- 24/21(2) 13/10(2).

The above would be my OtB reasoning since I wouldn't remember the single wins/gammon wins breakdown numbers from the third roll position rollout. However, seeing that P wins 3% more gammons for the third roll position, I think it should come out slightly ahead of B AtS even in the OP.

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