[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Greedy for Gammons

Posted By: Wolfgang
Date: Friday, 4 September 2015, at 12:09 a.m.

In Response To: Greedy for Gammons (Wolfgang)

I was too greedy for gammons in this position. I played 8/4(2) 5/1(2) to have the opportunity of picking up the blot on the 9-point. The bot analysis shows that I was wrong. Compared with 11/3 8/4(2), my play only wins 5.5% more gammons, yet loses 4.7% GWC. 8/4(2) 5/1(2) leaves four shots.

1.Rollout111/3 8/4(2)eq: +1,034
Player:
Opponent:		91,71% (G:16,94% B:0,17%)
8,29% (G:0,05% B:0,00%)		Conf.: ± 0,002 (+1,031...+1,036) - [100,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds
2.Rollout111/3 5/1(2)eq: +1,010 (-0,024)
Player:
Opponent:		90,56% (G:12,41% B:0,05%)
9,44% (G:0,16% B:0,00%)		Conf.: ± 0,002 (+1,008...+1,013) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 00 second
3.Rollout111/3 6/2(2)eq: +1,000 (-0,034)
Player:
Opponent:		88,05% (G:7,55% B:0,06%)
11,95% (G:0,67% B:0,01%)		Conf.: ± 0,000 (+1,000...+1,000) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1,3 seconds
4.Rollout18/4(2) 5/1(2)eq: +0,974 (-0,060)
Player:
Opponent:		86,98% (G:22,35% B:0,42%)
13,02% (G:0,25% B:0,01%)		Conf.: ± 0,002 (+0,971...+0,976) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 15 seconds
5.XG Roller++11/7 8/4 5/1(2)eq: +0,921 (-0,113)
Player:
Opponent:		88,81% (G:13,74% B:0,08%)
11,19% (G:1,04% B:0,02%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76927009
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 101
7 point match
pip: 73
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-BDBBB-Ba-A-a---a-cb-bbb-:2:1:1:44:0:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

I have found a nice variation. Here, the gammon-GWC trade-off is more favorable, and supports the idea of picking up a second checker. 8/4(2) 5/1(2) only leaves two shots.

1.Rollout18/4(2) 5/1(2)eq: +1,046
Player:
Opponent:		89,49% (G:22,75% B:0,47%)
10,51% (G:0,16% B:0,00%)		Conf.: ± 0,002 (+1,044...+1,049) - [100,0%]
Duration: 52,9 seconds
2.Rollout112/4 5/1(2)eq: +1,039 (-0,007)
Player:
Opponent:		91,97% (G:13,61% B:0,13%)
8,03% (G:0,13% B:0,00%)		Conf.: ± 0,002 (+1,037...+1,041) - [0,0%]
Duration: 41,3 seconds
3.Rollout112/4 8/4(2)eq: +1,035 (-0,012)
Player:
Opponent:		91,76% (G:16,90% B:0,29%)
8,24% (G:0,01% B:0,00%)		Conf.: ± 0,002 (+1,033...+1,037) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 07 seconds
4.Rollout112/4 6/2(2)eq: +1,011 (-0,035)
Player:
Opponent:		91,17% (G:8,56% B:0,18%)
8,83% (G:0,16% B:0,00%)		Conf.: ± 0,001 (+1,010...+1,012) - [0,0%]
Duration: 36,2 seconds
5.XG Roller++6/2(2) 5/1(2)eq: +0,825 (-0,221)
Player:
Opponent:		78,03% (G:11,98% B:0,10%)
21,97% (G:1,54% B:0,04%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76927009
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 101
7 point match
pip: 74
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-BDBBB-Ba--Aa---a-cb-bbb-:2:1:1:44:0:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.