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Variants
Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 5 January 2016, at 12:13 a.m.
In Response To: Is this a cube decision? ROLLOUT (Keene)
White is Allen Tish
score: 3
pip: 1719 point match pip: 145
score: 5
Blue is Keene MarinXGID=aaaBEBeEbcbA:0:0:1:00:5:3:0:9:10 Original Position
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 67.500% (G:22.608% B:2.869%) 67.022% (G:23.896% B:5.578%) Opponent Winning Chances: 32.500% (G:7.200% B:0.250%) 32.978% (G:7.576% B:0.516%) Cubeless Equities +0.5996 +1.3417 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.8146 (0.0356) �0.0162 (+0.7985..+0.8308) Double/Take: +0.8503 �0.0221 (+0.8282..+0.8724) Double/Pass: +1.0000 (+0.1497) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 99.5% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 14 minutes 37 seconds Above is Keene's rollout of the original position.
Below are three variants. The first two contrast the original. The third is a cusp.
White is Player 2
score: 3
pip: 1719 point match pip: 152
score: 5
Blue is Player 1XGID=aaaBDBeFbcbA:0:0:1:00:5:3:0:9:10 Variant 1
Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted by 6/13
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 65.78% (G:19.55% B:2.05%) 65.78% (G:20.05% B:3.33%) Opponent Winning Chances: 34.22% (G:7.84% B:0.33%) 34.22% (G:8.08% B:0.41%) Cubeless Equities +0.506 +1.164 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.704 กำ0.012 (+0.693..+0.716) Double/Take: +0.678 (0.026) กำ0.016 (+0.663..+0.694) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.296) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.4% Rollout details 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 99.5% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 5 hours 31 minutes
White is Player 2
score: 3
pip: 1739 point match pip: 145
score: 5
Blue is Player 1XGID=aaaBEBeEbcbA:0:0:1:00:5:3:0:9:10 Variant 2
Compared to the original, White has her 3pt instead of 2pt
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 64.46% (G:23.22% B:2.68%) 64.32% (G:24.07% B:4.16%) Opponent Winning Chances: 35.54% (G:7.94% B:0.42%) 35.68% (G:8.17% B:0.56%) Cubeless Equities +0.534 +1.209 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.701 กำ0.018 (+0.684..+0.719) Double/Take: +0.665 (0.037) กำ0.023 (+0.642..+0.688) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.299) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.8% Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 99.3% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes
White is Player 2
score: 3
pip: 1649 point match pip: 145
score: 5
Blue is Player 1XGID=aaaBEBdEbdbA:0:0:1:00:5:3:0:9:10 Variant 3
Compared to the original, White is adjusted by 13/6
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 66.13% (G:20.74% B:2.11%) 66.00% (G:21.41% B:3.73%) Opponent Winning Chances: 33.87% (G:8.11% B:0.39%) 34.00% (G:8.33% B:0.52%) Cubeless Equities +0.526 +1.202 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.725 กำ0.008 (+0.717..+0.733) Double/Take: +0.721 (0.004) กำ0.011 (+0.710..+0.732) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.275) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.4% Rollout details 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 70.9% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 5 hours 57 minutes

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