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Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 5 January 2016, at 12:13 a.m.

In Response To: Is this a cube decision? ROLLOUT (Keene)





White is Allen Tish

score: 3
pip: 171
9 point match
pip: 145
score: 5

Blue is Keene Marin
XGID=-aa-aBE-B---eE---b-c---bA-:0:0:1:00:5:3:0:9:10

Original Position


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.500% (G:22.608% B:2.869%) 67.022% (G:23.896% B:5.578%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.500% (G:7.200% B:0.250%) 32.978% (G:7.576% B:0.516%)
Cubeless Equities +0.5996 +1.3417
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.8146 (-0.0356)�0.0162 (+0.7985..+0.8308)
xg Double/Take:+0.8503�0.0221 (+0.8282..+0.8724)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.1497)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.5%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 14 minutes 37 seconds

Above is Keene's rollout of the original position.

Below are three variants. The first two contrast the original. The third is a cusp.





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 171
9 point match
pip: 152
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-aBD-B---eF---b-c---bA-:0:0:1:00:5:3:0:9:10

Variant 1
Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted by 6/13


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 65.78% (G:19.55% B:2.05%) 65.78% (G:20.05% B:3.33%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 34.22% (G:7.84% B:0.33%) 34.22% (G:8.08% B:0.41%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.506 +1.164
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.704กำ0.012 (+0.693..+0.716)
Double/Take:+0.678 (-0.026)กำ0.016 (+0.663..+0.694)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.296)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.4%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:99.5%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 hours 31 minutes







White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 173
9 point match
pip: 145
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-aBE-B---eE---b-c--b-A-:0:0:1:00:5:3:0:9:10

Variant 2
Compared to the original, White has her 3pt instead of 2pt


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 64.46% (G:23.22% B:2.68%) 64.32% (G:24.07% B:4.16%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 35.54% (G:7.94% B:0.42%) 35.68% (G:8.17% B:0.56%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.534 +1.209
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.701กำ0.018 (+0.684..+0.719)
Double/Take:+0.665 (-0.037)กำ0.023 (+0.642..+0.688)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.299)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:99.3%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes







White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 164
9 point match
pip: 145
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-aBE-B---dE---b-d---bA-:0:0:1:00:5:3:0:9:10

Variant 3
Compared to the original, White is adjusted by 13/6


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 66.13% (G:20.74% B:2.11%) 66.00% (G:21.41% B:3.73%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 33.87% (G:8.11% B:0.39%) 34.00% (G:8.33% B:0.52%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.526 +1.202
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.725กำ0.008 (+0.717..+0.733)
Double/Take:+0.721 (-0.004)กำ0.011 (+0.710..+0.732)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.275)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.4%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:70.9%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 hours 57 minutes

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