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Hit to get the extra gammons or not?

Posted By: scotty
Date: Tuesday, 2 February 2016, at 9:53 p.m.

In Response To: Hit to get the extra gammons or not? (John O'Hagan)

If blue plays 8/6, 1/off, then white best chance of winning is if blue rolls 65 next turn and white hits. That happens 22/1296, or about 2 games in 100. If blue plays 8/7*/5*, white hits 11/36 times, and most of blue's wins, and gammon chances are gone. 11/36 is about 30.5%. Blue is risking approximately 30 wins with the double hit.

The gammon price for money is .5. Blue needs to gain 60 gammons to make up for the additional losses. I don't see 60 additional gammons here.

Blue could play 8/7* 3/1, which increases gammons somewhat and costs only 2% wins. I suspect this play will give the 4 extra gammons needed to make it worthwhile.

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