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Rollouts at a few scores

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 1:19 a.m.

In Response To: Here's a chance to outsmart yourself (Timothy Chow)

Just looking at the cubeless gammons and the gammon prices (on a 2 cube) is somewhat misleading here because White is not going to win many gammons with the cube still on 2, and some of Blue's gammons will be killed by White's recubes to 4 (if the advantage see-saws between the two players).

The rollout favors the safe play but not by that much. At 4a4a it's a dead heat.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 51 5 point match pip: 95 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBaBBB-BB--------a---ccgA:1:-1:1:62:1:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 62

1.	Rollout1	Bar/17	eq: +0.315
	Player: Opponent: 69.98% (G:2.98% B:0.06%) 30.02% (G:1.93% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.310...+0.319) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 17 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/19 5/3*	eq: +0.269 (-0.045)
	Player: Opponent: 64.90% (G:14.71% B:0.65%) 35.10% (G:9.83% B:0.07%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.263...+0.276) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 15 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---

Gammon go:

		White is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 51 2 point match Crawford pip: 95 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBaBBB-BB--------a---ccgA:0:0:1:62:0:1:1:2:10
Blue to play 62

1.	Rollout1	Bar/19 5/3*	eq: +0.602
	Player: Opponent: 65.16% (G:14.93% B:0.72%) 34.84% (G:13.33% B:0.05%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.598...+0.606) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 10 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/17	eq: +0.458 (-0.144)
	Player: Opponent: 69.81% (G:3.10% B:0.09%) 30.19% (G:3.17% B:0.02%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.456...+0.461) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 08 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---

4a4a:

		White is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 51 5 point match pip: 95 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBaBBB-BB--------a---ccgA:1:-1:1:62:1:1:0:5:10
Blue to play 62

1.	Rollout1	Bar/17	eq: +0.309
	Player: Opponent: 69.96% (G:2.99% B:0.06%) 30.04% (G:2.16% B:0.08%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.305...+0.313) - [76.0%] Duration: 1 minute 17 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/19 5/3*	eq: +0.306 (-0.003)
	Player: Opponent: 65.43% (G:14.26% B:0.64%) 34.57% (G:10.32% B:0.37%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.299...+0.313) - [24.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 36 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Here's a chance to outsmart yourself
  Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 9 February 2016, at 12:33 a.m.
  • Here's a chance to outsmart yourself
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 9 February 2016, at 2:29 p.m.
    • Here's a chance to outsmart yourself
      Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 9 February 2016, at 3:57 p.m.
  • Here's a chance to outsmart yourself
    Keene -- Tuesday, 9 February 2016, at 4:53 p.m.
    • Here's a chance to outsmart yourself
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 9 February 2016, at 5:04 p.m.
      • Here's a chance to outsmart yourself
        Keene -- Tuesday, 9 February 2016, at 6:01 p.m.
        • Here's a chance to outsmart yourself
          neilkaz -- Tuesday, 9 February 2016, at 6:04 p.m.
          • Here's a chance to outsmart yourself
            Stick -- Tuesday, 9 February 2016, at 6:13 p.m.
            • Here's a chance to outsmart yourself
              Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 9 February 2016, at 6:21 p.m.
              • Here's a chance to outsmart yourself
                Stick -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 7:08 p.m.
  • Here's a chance to outsmart yourself
    johnk -- Tuesday, 9 February 2016, at 8:24 p.m.
  • Here's a chance to outsmart yourself
    Colin Owen -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 1:03 a.m.
    • Here's a chance to outsmart yourself
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 1:18 a.m.
      • Here's a chance to outsmart yourself
        Colin Owen -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 2:10 a.m.
        • Here's a chance to outsmart yourself
          neilkaz -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:01 a.m.
          • Here's a chance to outsmart yourself
            Colin Owen -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 1:16 p.m.
    • Here's a chance to outsmart yourself
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 2:07 a.m.
  • Rollouts at a few scores
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 1:19 a.m.
  • What are the most relevant gammon values?
    Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:47 a.m.